| Journal of Cosmology, 2010, Vol 7, pages 1777-1794. JournalofCosmology.com May, 2010 |
1. Hawking's Alien's Squawkings, John Menninger, Ph.D., Department of Biology, University of Iowa. Aliens, as perceived by Hawking Could soon visit Earth for some gawking. They might do good, but Oy!, They might wish to destroy! We'll more likely be bored by their talking. (-- with apologies to E. Lear) 2. Darwinism and Hawking's Aliens, Blair Csuti, Ph.D., Research Associate, Department of Forest Ecosystems and Society, Oregon State University. First, one must grant the premise that by sheer laws of probability, many advanced alien civilizations exist throughout the universe. Professor Hawking’s trepidation about the wisdom of overtly seeking contact with them is well-founded. We have no way of discerning the intent of alien visitors except after-the-fact. The Darwinian concept of natural selection supports the assumption that aliens visiting newly discovered planets, like Earth, would place their own interests above those of unsophisticated indigenous residents. If the rate of evolution observed on Earth from the first records of single-celled organisms to the current state of hominid achievement is any indication, one can expect that alien civilizations will achieve a similar level of technological development in 5 or 6 billion years. Our best estimates of the age of the universe range in excess of 13 billion years. Therefore, another statistical premise is that there will be lots of more advanced alien civilizations in the older, more distant reaches of the universe. All of this bodes ill for the outcome of any encounter with space aliens. However, the one bright spot in this ominous conclusion are the constraints that light, time, and space place on both matter and energy (that means both us and our potential alien invaders). It’s no coincidence that every science fiction narrative of interstellar travel includes some currently undiscovered system that allows travel many times faster than the speed of light. In real science, however, Einstein’s relativity theories seem to have held up on one point: no particle or wave exceeds the speed of light. First, this means that the wave front of Earth’s first electromagnetic transmissions to the rest of the universe is barely more than 100 light-years distant. It could well be tens of millions of years before our unintended radio and television calling cards are noticed by the first avaricious aliens. Then, racing to Earth at near-light speed, it will take our would-be exploiters tens of millions more years to turn up on our doorstep. Unless they have very long life-spans, that would require a generational space ship with little prospect of returning to their home planet with whatever booty that they considered valuable enough to undertake a long and expensive expedition. The only motivation for alien space plunders to visit Earth then, as Hawking suggested, would be to send out one-way colonists to expand the size and distribution of their race. Given sufficient time, that scenario is likely to play out multiple times. This is not so different, strange to say, from human’s own aspirations for space travel. Earth’s only hope will be that the laws of physics apply throughout the universe and place constraints on the types and power of possible weaponry that could be used against humans…and that by the time the invaders arrive, humans themselves will have discovered and deployed similar defense systems that would allow Earth to hold its own. Speculation about the future is by definition, fiction, but it sounds as if our most imaginative science fiction may turn out to be closer to the truth than we would like. 3. Alien Conquistadors? Hawking is Right, Robert Ehrlich, Ph.D., Professor of Physics, George Mason University. It is easy for one’s initial reaction to Stephen Hawking’s assertion about predatory alien visitors to be dismissive, since while he is perhaps our greatest living physicist, he has no more expertise in the area of alien motives than anyone else – assuming that intelligent aliens even exist. But after a little thought one’s second reaction might be “how could it be otherwise?” Given the obstacles to alien life evolving beyond the microbial stage in our own solar system, one presumes that alien visitors would come to us from other star systems – the other possibility being that microbial aliens might hitch a ride on a meteorite blasted off from a planet within our own solar system. Alien visitors from the stars would fall into one of four categories, i.e., they (1) have mastered the technology of faster-than-light travel (if that is even possible), (2) be adaptable robots whose mental processes reflect those of their senders, (3) have such long lifetimes that interstellar voyages are possible, or (4) have lived for many generations aboard their ships. My own guess is that number 2 would be the most likely, but with all these choices it would be a safe guess that if these space-journeying aliens exist, their technology is light-years ahead of ours, and that they are almost certainly the preeminent species on their home planet. How would a species attain that favored status? Certainly, intelligence is a factor, but one can always imagine unintelligent species winning out. For example, it is not out of the realm of possibility that intelligent humans could be wiped out by lowly microbes. Nevertheless, all our experiences on Earth suggest that when a more technologically advanced species or group of humans encounters another and competes for the same resources, the result is always conflict, with the more advanced group emerging victorious – the movie Avatar notwithstanding. Being a member of a species generally means you value the lives of your own members above those of other species, even if you might not wish to see them die needlessly. On Earth our recognition of the deep mental and emotional lives of some of our fellow passengers on the planet has come exceedingly slowly – with Rene Descartes even holding that animals are simply robots having no thoughts or feelings. Given the probability that the gap in intelligence between alien visitors and humans would be far greater than that between humans and our close relatives on Earth, how could they not think of us as a very lowly life form, certainly not worthy of treating as equals? One also needs to ask what motives aliens would have for taking the trouble to travel across the stars. Could it be simple curiosity, and a desire to have us join the “Galactic Federation?” This seems highly doubtful, because interstellar communication would seem to be the far easier course of action in that case. Of course, there is the limit of the speed of light to consider, which makes interstellar communication a rather prolonged affair. However, if we have already allowed faster-than-light travel, there is no reason to exclude faster-than-light communication, using tachyons perhaps, which incidentally are not entirely excluded based on experimental searches to date. Let’s assume Stephen Hawking is correct then, and proceed to the next step – what should we do? One might argue that we should make no attempt to communicate with intelligent aliens by broadcasting signals. The temptation to do so could become quite strong if SETI ever detects an unambiguously positive signal. On the other hand, such communication would be quite pointless should the signal be from a star 500 light years away, given that the beings who we will have likely evolved into (or who replace us) in 500 years will bear little resemblance to those of us who sent the message. Moreover, given the difficulties we now have in even taking simple actions to save the planet from manmade environmental catastrophe, one can only imagine the debate in the halls of Congress and United Nations as to how to reply to alien attempts at communication. 4. Hawking's Alien Invaders Might Be Microorganisms, B.G. Sidharth, Ph.D. International Institute For Applicable Mathematics & Information Sciences B.M. Birla Science Centre Adarshnagar, Hyderabad, India Professor Stephen Hawking’s latest much publicized views about the existence of aliens and the threat his imagined aliens pose to mankind are somewhat naïve though not absurd, as these are based on the probability that such events may happen, given that there are so many stars and planets. However, even if Hawking's were correct, the greatest danger may not be technically advanced aliens looking for world's to conquer, but the diseases and microoganisms which might journey with them. Findings in recent years support the view that life in the universe may be widespread, and most likely, much of that life probably consists of bacteria, archae, and the viruses typically associated with them. There are already tantalizing clues suggestive of past and even present life on Mars. Life may have also taken hold on Europa, Titan, and other moons and planets in this solar system (see Journal of Cosmology, Vol 5). The French satellite CoRoT has just discovered a planet, called CoRoT-9b far beyond the Solar System, 1500 light years away. What makes this finding dramatic is that this could well be the first temperate planet similar to the planets of our Solar System. The new planet has a size roughly that of Jupiter with an orbit similar to Mercury. Unlike the four hundred other suspected exo planets, is neither extremely hot nor extremely cold. Its surface temperature is estimated to be between minus 20 degrees and 160 degrees Celsius, similar to Mars. Extremeophiles could certainly live under these conditions. Very recently too NASA’s Jet Propulsion Laboratory in Pasadena has discovered a planet well outside the Solar System which has traces of organic molecules, the building blocks of life. The planet HD209458b has yielded traces of water, methane and carbon dioxide as detected by the Hubble Space Telescope and the Spitzer Telescope. Similar findings have been determined for the planet HD189733b. These particular findings do not prove that life itself would be widespread, because it would be very improbable for life to develop, even if all the ingredients were present. But in the light of relatively recent work by Joseph, Schild, Gibson, Wickramasinghe, Sharov (see Journal of Cosmology Volume 5, ), and others, all this would lead to the dramatic conclusion that life may be abundant and wide spread throughout the universe (Joseph and Schild 2010a,b). For several decades it has been believed that life originated on the earth billions of years ago in soups of water and chemicals which interacted with energy from the Sun. This would make the formation of life an improbable event. However, a number of scientists, including the present author (Sidharth, 2009, Journal of Cosmology Vol 1, Vol 10.) have been arguing for a dual mode origin of life, that is key ingredients like amino acids, but not yet fully formed life had reached Earth from outer space and chemically interacted with other ingredients present to form life. As similar conditions could have taken place on other planets, this would mean that the formation and evolution of life may be far more probable than thought earlier, particularly on planets located in habitable zones. For example, complex molecules have been discovered in interstellar space, for example, in the cool dust clouds of the Orion Nebula and in the constellation of Sagittarius. Observations with telescopes, spectroscopes, radio telescopes and even orbiting observatories have confirmed the presence of molecules like methyl cyanide, water vapour, formaldehyde, methyl alcohol and even the potable ethyl alcohol. Clearly there are several organic molecules in the cool dust clouds spread across outer space. This apart the space crafts Giotto and Vega which flew by Comet Halley glimpsed carbon rich molecules while space based observations revealed the presence of Ethane and Methane in Comets Hyakutake and Hale Bopp. Space dust reveals organic carbon. Interestingly some thirty tons of such carbon is brought down to the earth each day by the interstellar dust. Meteorites have shown nucleo basis, ketones, quinines, carboxylic acids, amines and amides. In fact as many as eight of the twenty amino acids involved in life processes have been identified besides some sixty others. Recently, NASA announced that an analysis of data from its Stardust mission revealed, for the first time the presence of the amino acid glycine in an icy comet. The all important amino acids in nature come as left handed molecules and also right handed molecules reminiscent of a right handed spiral conch shell and a left handed spiral conch. The amino acids produced in the laboratory show equal quantities of the left handed and right handed varieties. There are no interactions involving light in such molecules. However in life processes, the left handed molecules predominate over the right handed molecules. Interestingly in the amino acids found on meteorites, we have exactly this preponderance of left handed amino acid molecules! This is the crucial trigger, and with chemical self organization leads to animate processes like photosynthesis. It appears that amino acids, quinons, amphibilic molecules and the like were transported to the earth by meteoritic dust or cometary fragments. These could well have kick started the first life processes on the earth. Very recently, Amino acids were again observed in comets. This also means that life would be well spread out in the universe and is not unique to Earth. As on Earth, microorganisms are probably the most abundant form of life on other planets. As argued by Joseph and Schild (2010; Journal of Cosmology Vol 5), given a habitable planet within a habitable zone, and if these microorganisms have genomes consisting of DNA, then life may evolve in patterns similar to those on Earth. Alien life may have evolved beyond the stage of modern Earth-based humans billions of years ago. Given the nature of life on Earth is competition for resources, and as technically advanced civilizations typically conquer those less developed, then Hawking's concern about the dangers of alien contact, should be take seriously. However, it is probably not technologically advanced aliens, but alien microorganisms which pose the greatest danger to life on Earth (Joseph and Wickramasinghe 2010). When Columbus was followed by the Spanish conquistadors, it was not advanced weaponry which destroyed the native civilizations, but disease. The Spanish soldiers and monks carried diseases the natives had never before encountered and they died in vast numbers. Therefore it could be argued that the greatest threat is not from alien conquistadors. It is exposure to alien microorganisms which might prove disastrous to the inhabitants of Earth. Joseph, R., and Wickramasinghe, C. (2010). Comets and contagion: Evolution and diseases from space. ournal of Cosmology, 7. In press. Sidharth, B. G. (2009). In Defense of Abiogenesis, Journal of Cosmology, 2009, 1, 73-75 5. Alien Life and Quantum Consciousness, Randy D. Allen, Ph.D., Department of Biochemistry and Molecular Biology, Oklahoma State University. Dr. Steven Hawking argues that alien life almost surely exists and warns that human encounters with aliens could well end badly for us. In the absence of actual evidence for the presence of extraterrestrial life, much less for its intentions, I would say that Dr. Hawking’s guesses are as good as anyone else’s. I guess that it is equally likely that extraterrestrial life does not exist either because it never arose or, if it did arise, was soon eliminated. Another possibility is that some sort of primitive photosynthetic or chemosynthetic organisms exist elsewhere in the Universe. If, as on Earth, the primary form of energy available on other planets is radiation from a nearby star, it seems likely that, as on Earth, photosynthetic organisms must predominate. It follows that consumers of these producers may well have also evolved. However, life that exists away from Earth will not necessarily use the same chemistry. If, as we generally assume, water is required for life, then the range of possible chemistries is constrained but there is absolutely no reason to assume that anything remotely close to plants or animals, much less humans, exists elsewhere. Although dissimilarities in chemistry could limit our ability to analyze or even detect extraterrestrials, it could also protect us from harm. An alien organism without proteins, for example, may have a difficult time digesting us. If, on the other hand, we were to encounter alien life forms that ravenously consume all of the energy containing chemical compounds that they can get their ”hands” on, it would indeed be tragic for us, but a good meal for them. Life as we know it is based on chemistry but, what if life elsewhere is based, not on chemistry but on quantum mechanics? Imagine alien life forms that can manipulate subatomic particles like our cells manipulate chemical compounds. Humans have existed as a species for less than a million years and we are, as far as we know, the only species on Earth that has even the vaguest notion of physics. We only discovered the atom and learned to unleash its power within the last century. Our understanding of quantum mechanics is rudimentary, at best, yet we are on the verge of developing practical quantum computers that promise virtually unlimited computational power. It is conceivable that, in the billions of years since the Big Bang, other organisms evolved at some time and some place that have already mastered quantum mechanics. Let’s say that intelligent, social, organisms with chemically-based metabolism, fundamentally not unlike ourselves, evolved on a planet somewhere in the universe. Their unquenchable curiosity about the universe (or, like us, their unquenchable desire to exploit it) led them to develop efficient quantum computers. They realized that, with such computers, the whole of their existence could be computerized, all memories and life experiences, all emotions and motivations, could be transferred to a collective “quantum brain”. In effect, their “species”, though biologically extinct, could become immortal. No more inefficient metabolism requiring huge energy input, no chemically derived bodies to wear out, no reproduction, no death, no taxes. Just supermassively parallel collective consciousness with unlimited capabilities. Perhaps, through super symmetry or entanglement, they can “see” or “feel” the entire universe. Maybe, they’ve gained the ability to manipulate elementary particles and can control its evolution and its fate. They would have become, by any human definition, Gods. It’s conceivable that quantum capabilities evolved multiple times throughout the universe, each new member of the quantum club bringing a novel dimension of consciousness, along with a few billion additional “neighbors” to get to know. With no need to compete for resources, quantum beings are probably peaceful and only want the best for the Universe and its inhabitants. Maybe they are aware of our existence but don’t care about us, much as we ignore most of the “lower” organisms that surround us. Alternatively, perhaps they have noted our biological, social and technological evolution and realize that we humans may well join their ranks someday and become quantum beings ourselves. The possibility of evolving a quantum consciousness of course, depends on numerous variables, and requires that we are not first exterminated by an asteroid impact, a nearby supernova, or gigantic volcanic eruptions, or our civilization is not decimated by global warfare over resource scarcity exacerbated by climate change. Then there is the possibility we might simply lose our scientific impetus through loss of political support for basic research and let our chance for immortality slip away. 6.Fear of Fanatics: Why Stephen Hawking is Right, And We Should Not Contact Intelligent Extraterrestrials. Rüdiger Vaas, Center for Philosophy and Foundations of Science, University of Giessen, Germany Abstract Stephen Hawking worries about extraterrestrials (ETs) conquering Earth if we try to contact them. These concerns are indeed justified – though not primarily because of possible colonization in order to exploit Earth's resources or enslave humans. There is another and more pernicious motivation, namely ideological – especially religious – delusion. If ETs were to visit earth, it is likely that they would be fanatical fundamentalists wanting to proselytize. If religious delusion is widespread, demographically expanding and perhaps even of evolutionary advantage, it is a threat to all peaceful sentient beings. This might even offer a solution to Fermi's paradox: ETs are not here, because if they were, we wouldn't be. 1. Why Worry? Stephen Hawking has repeatedly warned against transmitting messages into the sky with a view to contacting extraterrestrial civilizations (Hawking 2002, p. 65; Hawking 2010). And he once presumed that the first contact, if it had happened, would have been recognized easily because of its similarity not with the movie E.T. but withIndependence Day (Hawking 2001, p. 179). Though not a specialist in these issues, Hawking is an eminent cosmologist and one of the most famous scientists of the 21st century (Vaas 2005a, 2008a), thus his influential opinion makes a difference. It is praiseworthy that he brought up again a worry about a possible contact with extraterrestrials (ETs), though his opinion should not be confused with – and was not meant as – a scientific statement. Such a contact, although eagerly awaited by some, could turn out to be a disaster in human history. "We only have to look at ourselves to see how intelligent life might develop into something we wouldn't want to meet," Hawking (2010) said. "If aliens ever visit us, I think the outcome would be much as when Christopher Columbus first landed in America, which didn't turn out very well for the American Indians." But is this worry justified, and in what respects? Why should extraterrestrial civilizations want to conquer Earth? 2. Escape or Extinction Of course it is an open issue whether extraterrestrial life (Cosmovici, Bowyer & Werthimer 1997; Goldsmith & Owen 2001; Horneck & Baumstark-Kahn 2001; Ward & Brownlee 2000) and in particular extraterrestrial intelligence (Drake & Sobel 1992; Shostak 2003a; Vaas 1993, 2003), exists in the Milky Way or in the entire cosmos. But if it does, it is still a matter of controversy whether extraterrestrial civilizations would be numerous, motivated and advanced enough to communicate with us, let alone to meet us (Vaas 2002a; Zaun 2010). They might well be isolated in space and time, and because of the finite velocity of light it would be barely possible to start a dialogue even with our closest neighbors in the course of a human lifetime, let alone to chat. Moreover, if there is no feasible way to travel faster than light, via wormholes for instance (Visser 1996, Vaas 2005a), a flying visit seems rather unlikely. But nevertheless generation ships, still mostly a topic of science fiction, are technologically possible in principle and might travel through space for millennia (Savage 1992). And because both planetary resources and the lifetime of stars are limited, any advanced civilization is condemned someday either to die out or to leave its home planet – i.e. to settle in outer space or to move to other, younger stars and planets. This is a kind of cosmic imperative. On Earth, for example, we anticipate only another 500 to 1500 million years of moderate temperatures, i.e. a much shorter time than that until our sun blows up to become a red giant star, engulfing Earth in 7.6 billion years (Vaas 2007a; Schroeder & Smith 2008). Thus, planetary escape might very well be underway already, with extraterrestrial civilizations colonizing the galaxy right now (Ulmschneider 2003). "I imagine they might exist in massive ships, having used up all the resources from their home planet," Hawking speculated. "Such advanced aliens would perhaps become nomads, looking to conquer and colonise whatever planets they can reach." This is certainly possible. But there are probably millions of Earth-like planets in the Milky Way (e.g. Franck et al. 2001; von Bloh et al. 2009), and many more planets, dwarf planets, and asteroids to exploit. Thus, if ETs don’t need Earth to survive, if they respect complex, self-conscious life, and if they are not only technologically but also ethically advanced, they would not wipe us out. Nor is it likely that they would just come to eat us and other terrestrial animals, because even if they could digest us it would be much less effort to breed their food, for example in space colonies, than to travel dozens or hundreds of light-years. Equally, cosmic slavery is improbable, for technologically superior intelligences would create robots to deal with hard and stupid work. So perhaps we should calm down and relax. But this does not imply that we should be trying to establish contact. Firstly, it is much too early and too costly right now, and secondly there are other risks. 3. Already Discovered? Without a doubt, trying to be silent is only approximately possible – it is a matter of quantity, not quality. And for a simple reason: Earth has already spoken to the stars. This happened not primarily by intention, and the couple of radio messages containing symbols that were transmitted into outer space – the first consisting of 1679 binary digits sent with the power of 1000 kilowatt-hours from the Arecibo observatory on November 16, 1974 in the direction of the globular cluster M13 in the constellation of Hercules – are negligible. But radio was invented at the end of the 19th century, and large-scale broadcasting began in the 1920s. These early transmissions, however, were of low power and at low frequency, thus had difficulty making it into space because they were reflected by Earth's ionosphere. But as early as in the 1930s amateur radio, radio, and television programs started leaking into outer space. These were augmented later by radar signals for both for terrestrial and astronomical purposes. Thus Earth has been broadcasting for decades, and if there is anybody out there, those extraterrestrial civilizations may soon discover signs of our technological existence or have already done so. And perhaps they concluded that there is no intelligent life on earth, judging from TV soap operas, advertisements, and speeches of politicians like the madman opening the Olympics in Berlin 1936, as so powerfully visualized by Robert Zemeckis in his film adaptation of Carl Sagan's novel Contact in 1997. This should not be overestimated, however. A modern TV transmitter can put out a megawatt of power. It is not very tightly focused, so even though much of the broadcast energy spills into space, it’s fairly weak by the time it reaches another star system. Seth Shostak (2003b) put it in perspective: "Consider one of our early TV programs just washing over a planet that's 50 light-years away. To detect the "carrier" signal from this broadcast in a few minutes time would require about 3,000 acres of rooftop antennas connected to a sensitive receiver. That’s a lot of antennas, and an unsightly concept. But it’s not hard to build, and the aliens could conceivably do it. If the extraterrestrials were unwise enough to actually want to see the program, then they’d need an antenna about 30,000 times greater in area (roughly the size of Colorado). Ambitious, but possible." But their chances dropped since the invention of cable TV. A rather easier task would be the detection of military radars. The bigger ones typically boast a megawatt of power, and they are focused into beams 1 or 2 degree across. There are enough such radars that they cover about 1 percent of the sky at any given time. "The signal from the most powerful of these could be found at 50 light-years distance in a few minutes time with a receiving antenna 1,000 feet in diameter", Shostak (2003b) estimates. "These military radars are the only signals routinely transmitted from Earth that are intense enough to be detectable at interstellar distances with setups equivalent to our own SETI experiments. With radio technology slightly more advanced than our own, Homo sapiens is detectable out to a distance of roughly 50 light-years. Within that distance are about 5,000 stars, all of which have had the enviable pleasure of receiving terrestrial television. And each day, a fresh stellar system is exposed to signals from Earth." On the other hand it seems quite unlikely that another civilization exists within only 50 or 100 light-years. But this does not mean that Earth is not within the focus of alien observers. "We're no doubt listed in some alien grad students data tables as a world with life, but without the footnote indicating intelligent life", Shostak (2003b) joked. "We are the new kids on the block, and so far it’s a safe bet that none of the other kids know we're here." But they would know that Earth is alive because it displays a great many biological indicators, for example atmospheric spectral signatures indicating that there is organic activity on the planet (oxygen, methane etc.). In that respect, advanced civilizations could have known for up to 2 to 3 billion years that Earth is a habitable planet. So there are expanding cultures out there, why didn't they visited or colonized Earth already? This is one of the reasons for asking: Where are they? Why, if they are common, haven’t any ETs contacted or visited us already? (There is a vast literature on this issue, known as the Fermi Paradox after Enrico Fermi's famous question "Where are they?" in 1950, cf. e.g. Zuckerman & Hart 1995; Webb 2002; Vaas 2010a.) So do they have no interest, or are they not able to come, or are they simply not out there? In view of these questions, Hawking's worries might appear greatly exaggerated. This is not the case, however, because there are other things that may attract ETs apart from colonization needs. Here one of these shall be briefly sketched, thereby giving a genuine reason to fear an invasion from outer space and another justification for Stephen Hawking's worry. 4. Interstellar Proselytization It is important to keep in mind that an active attempt to contact ETs, CETI (Communication with Extraterrestrial Intelligence) instead of SETI (Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence), is not the same as the passive and involuntary signs of Earth's biological activities: First the signals would (have to) be much stronger, and second they indicate our willingness to meet the aliens. This makes a difference, because exactly this can motivate some ETs to visit us – if they are eager to exploit not our resources but our minds: The most severe danger is not that ETs want our planet or our bodies – but that they want our souls. Though it is unlikely that souls exist as entities ontologically distinct from bodies, for instance as ghostly Cartesian egos (Vaas 1999a & 2002b), it remains likely that there are intelligent beings who believe in the existence of such entities, just as many of our fellow humans still do. On Earth quasi-schizoid attitude systems such as hightech engineering abilities going hand-in-hand with old-fashioned belief in creationism are relatively common too, even in technologically advanced civilizations like the United States of America. Thus it is a real possibility that alien astronauts would like to visit us for reasons of interstellar proselytization; and no belief in Cartesian dualism is necessary for this, of course – the ETs might hold convictions we can hardly imagine. This sounds like science fiction, but there is already some scientific evidence right here on Earth, i.e. some examples and arguments from evolutionary psychology and sociology. 4.1. Extraterrestrial Theologies – and Religions as Cosmic Universals? Though there were some considerations about theological implications of ET contacts (cf., e.g., Dick 2005, Kather 2004), speculations about the opposite, extraterrestrial theologies, are quite rare. Of course there is no reason to assume that religious belief is a psychological necessity of and for intelligent beings. Even if humans are "born believers", and this is what some scientists claim (Kelemen & DiYanni 2005; Bulbulia 2007) though the validity of the idea is disputed, and even if religiosity is an evolutionary by-product of an adaptive trait (cf. Boyer 2008; Pyysiäinen & Hauser 2010; Sosis 2009; Vaas 2009bc, 2010c), such circumstances would not imply that every sentient, selfconscious being is affected by these urges of transcendence. Most ETs might never have developed naïve belief systems or simply skipped such forms of psychological projections, wishful thinking, and subtle manipulation, especially due to scientific and social progress, secularization and enlightenment. But, on the other hand, there remains the possibility that there are some ultra-religious aliens out there. Religion might not be a cosmic universal – whether or not it is a human universal (Antweiler 2007; Brown 1991) – but a few devout populations might be enough to fill not the heavens but the sky. 4.2. The Great Temptation It is rather speculative to think about the future of civilizations, especially extraterrestrial ones, yet a consideration of their underlying psychological, biological, and cultural constraints may be illuminating. Perhaps technologically advanced intelligence has a tendency to be self-limiting, even self-exterminating – either due to its owners’ evolutionary inheritance (becoming maladaptive because of the radically changed environment and dangerous technical abilities) or because of ecological and social problems. Furthermore, advanced civilizations, though they might not blow themselves up, could become trapped in diverse kinds of stagnation, for instance spirituality or addiction to entertainment, thus losing interest in space exploration. This is what Geoffrey Miller (2006) conjectured from the perspective of evolutionary psychology: "They forget to send radio signals or colonize space because they’re too busy with runaway consumerism and virtual-reality narcissism. They don’t need Sentinels to enslave them in a Matrix; they do it to themselves, just as we are doing today. Once they turn inwards to chase their shiny pennies of pleasure, they lose the cosmic plot. They become like a self-stimulating rat, pressing a bar to deliver electricity to its brain’s ventral tegmental area, which stimulates its nucleus accumbens to release dopamine, which feels … ever so good." Evolution cannot anticipate novel environments. Modern society is such a novel environment. But it is possible for brains to evolve short-cuts: fitness-promoting tricks, cons, recipes and heuristics that work, more often than not, and under different conditions. Adapted to ancestral ecological and social environments, these short-cuts can go astray however. Evolved minds, such as those of higher primates, pay attention to indirect signs of biological fitness rather than tracking fitness itself. Thus, although evolution favors brains that tend to maximize fitness – as measured by numbers of great-grandchildren, for instance, not just direct offspring –, no brain capacity suffices to do so under every possible circumstance, because this would be computationally intractable. And here comes the problem: Modern society can fool the adapted minds and brains because fitness-faking technology tends to evolve much faster than the psychological resistance to it. Geoffrey Miller (2006) argued, "that a certain period of fitness-faking narcissism is inevitable after any intelligent life evolves. This is the Great Temptation for any technological species – to shape their subjective reality to provide the cues of survival and reproductive success without the substance. Most bright alien species probably go extinct gradually, allocating more time and resources to their pleasures, and less to their children. They eventually die out when the game behind all games – the Game of Life – says ‘Game Over; you are out of lives and you forgot to reproduce.’" Thus there might be a bottleneck in social evolution if reproduction falls below a certain threshold – though the other extreme, exponential population increase, seems a more imminent and much more serious threat, so this must be brought under control first. Civilizations overcoming those bottleneck(s) will solve the fitnessfaking problems. This might happen not only sociologically, but perhaps even biologically. Miller (2006) speculated about the latter: "Heritable variation in personality might allow some lineages to resist the Great Temptation and last longer. Some individuals and families may start with an "irrational" Luddite abhorrence of entertainment technology, and they may evolve ever more self-control, conscientiousness and pragmatism. They will evolve a horror of virtual entertainment, psychoactive drugs and contraception. They will stress the values of hard work, delayed gratification, child-rearing and environmental stewardship. They will combine the family values of the religious right with the sustainability values of the Greenpeace left. [...] Those practical-minded breeders will inherit the Earth as like-minded aliens may have inherited a few other planets. When they finally achieve contact, it will not be a meeting of novel-readers and game-players. It will be a meeting of dead-serious super-parents who congratulate each other on surviving not just the Bomb, but the Xbox." 4.3. Explosive Ideologies and Population Explosion But this sounds much too optimistic, even for Xbox abstainers. If reproductive outnumbering is what counts in evolution, ecological sustainability can hardly be maintained. Moreover, reproductive surplus is usually at the expense of others of the same, or other species. So it is doubtful whether such a meeting of "super-parents" would happen peacefully with mutual congratulations. Furthermore, it is not necessary that the resistance to the "Great Temptation" should be inherited, certainly not directly. Cultural habits and social pressures might be sufficient to preserve it. In any case, unbounded reproductive priorities will shape the course of civilizations, and they accompany or are intended by ideological superstructures, especially religious ones. On Earth, at least, this is clearly the case. Here adherents of fundamentalist religions have, on the average, more children than moderate religious and secular people (reviews in Vaas & Blume 2009, Kaufmann 2010), welfare and educational levels considered. If these additional offspring continually outnumber those turning away from the religion, the fraction of fundamentalist people would steadily increase, in spite of secularization – especially if levels of social injustice, correlated with religiosity and perhaps even abetted by it (Vaas 2010d), are high. Thus fundamentalist ideologies, especially self-immunized religious ones, are likely to sustain population growth despite fitness-faking distractions. If so, expansionist extraterrestrial civilizations are probably religious hardliners. Their ecological challenges, of course, remain. But here fundamentalist religious doctrines might also be relevant. There are some indications that they foster and strengthen cooperation due to social control, diminishing the influence of free riders (who always undermine reciprocal altruistic cooperation), and thus at least partly solve problems such as the "Tragedy of the Commons" (cf. Irons 2001; Sosis 2004 & 2005; Vaas 2007bc; Schloss 2008). Thus, one might even put religiosity into a broader perspective. Though religious beliefs seem not to be true (there are powerful arguments that they are wrong, see e.g. Blackford & Schüklenk 2009; Everitt 2004; Martin 2007; Stenger 2007) and even confused mind and brain states (Brüne 2009; Persinger 1987; Urgesi et al. 2010) or just emotions and projections (Epley et al. 2009; Harris et al. 2009; Vaas 2005bc, 2010b) or overactive pattern recognition mechanisms leading to superstition (Hood 2009), they have effects. And these effects could be a by-product of adaptive traits (obedience to authority, pseudo-explanations, superstition) or even have a more direct evolutionary advantage with regard to natural selection by fostering cooperation or improving health, or in relation to sexual selection (see Vaas 2006a, 2009bc; Bulbulia 2008; Vaas & Blume 2009; Voland & Schiefenhövel 2009 for detailed critical reviews and discussion). Furthermore, many fundamentalist religions are expansionist. As the Pilgrim Fathers, the Mormons and many others on Earth explored and populated new and even harsh environments, religious ETs might also be colonizing outer space to cope with their population increase. And they most likely feel themselves called upon to "spread the word" if they are able – perhaps even beyond their own species. Thus if they happen to receive contact calls from Earth, they might soon visit us in search of new followers and believers. And if we do not follow and believe, they might bring us their "truth" with fire and sword… 4.4. Shall the Religious Inherit the Milky Way? Of course, no single step in this sketch of extraterrestrial cultural development is necessary and self-evident. But if it were to take place it might be self-sustaining and self-enforcing, leading to social and perhaps even biological selective advantages. The latter, depending on genetic constraints, are more controversial (cf. Vaas 2005d for spirituality), but need not to imply specific genes "for religiosity" – religiosity might simply be a by-product or "parasitic meme" based on other traits such as obedience to authority (Bouchard 2009, Vaas 2010d). Summing up, fundamentalist belief-systems could be a driving force for cultural proliferation, interstellar expansion included. If such fundamentalist doctrines are successful, and as an object of cultural (or memetic) selection (Dawkins 1993) they very well could be, then they even might cross the borders of species. Thus one can imagine expanding extraterrestrial civilizations that are driven by religious doctrines and occupied with a cosmic kind of evangelization – the extreme case being that invaded inferior civilizations either subscribe to those doctrines or simply get eradicated. Such a scenario is not that speculative. On Earth there are many small-scale examples of it. (Of course religion is not the only such driving force.) Indeed the colonization and subjugation of the Americas, which Stephen Hawking also mentioned, was driven by a complex interplay of economical, political, military and religious factors. And this is just one example. Furthermore, such struggles are continuing globally, and future clashes of civilizations are probable. Reproduction rates of fundamentalists such as Christian Pentecostals, radical Muslims, orthodox Jews and also lesser known, much more peaceful groups such as the Amish and the Hutterites are high. Therefore perhaps this "breeding for God", as Stuart Kaufmann (2006 & 2010) calls it, implies that "the religious shall inherit the Earth". This tendency can be combined with Geoffrey Miller’s view. He pointed out (2006) that "Christian and Muslim fundamentalists and anti-consumerism activists already understand exactly what the Great Temptation is, and how to avoid it. They insulate themselves from our creative-class dreamworlds and our EverQuest economics. They wait patiently for our fitness-faking narcissism to go extinct." Religious convictions might not be psychologically necessary. But, on the other hand, neither is it a necessity that all advanced civilizations abandon strange, non-verifiable beliefs in transcendent entities. Just a few of them would be enough to conquer the galaxy if sufficiently motivated. And more peaceful, wiser secular civilizations might be completely at the mercy of their spiritual and accompanying military attacks. An obviously increasing threat here on Earth too. In conclusion, it is likely that if ETs visit Earth, interstellar proselytization will come with them. Thus they might force us to make a choice between complete subjugation or becoming extinct. (It would be a galactic version of the "cuius region, eius religio" rule: "whose realm, his religion".) It is also possible and even more alarming that the dominant fundamentalist doctrine may be based on a uniqueness dogma claiming superiority of the adherents and a dualistic good / evil scheme: a cosmic Armageddon. So if these devotional civilizations spread "successfully" in this manner, mankind, standing in their way, will simply be thrown aside from the road of salvation, like all dissenters. The winner takes it all. 4.5. The Hazard of Faith All these considerations might appear far-fetched. But they aren't. We have these same problems and hazards right here on Earth at present, albeit on smaller scales. But if we cannot and will not hold the ideologists at bay, they will sooner or later devastate our own planet or at least the fruits of our scientific and philosophical cultures long before frenzied aliens will do. Religiosity and religions are not always, and not in every case, devastating, of course. But because of their inherent tendency to claim infallible truth and even absolute relevation, in the extreme immunity to any criticism, they carry the evil seeds of intolerance (Dawkins 2006a; Grayling 2007; Hitchens 2007; Persinger 1997). This may go as far as condoning killing of all non-believers – or at least opening the door for such (mis)use by fanatics, and allowing those greedy for power to exploit them for their own purposes. Even if religion was useful or advantageous in the past, it might be harmful and detrimental nowadays or in the future. The main problem is that ideological dogmas – and there are not only religious ones! –, claiming to own absolute, infallible truths, can and often did motivate people to dehumanize and debase others. As Steven Weinberg (2001, p. 174) once wrote: "with or without religion, good people would tend to behave well and bad people would do evil things, but the peculiar contribution of religion throughout history has been to allow good people do evil things." It is religious ideology or, according to people like Richard Dawkins (2006a), religious delusion, i.e. madness, which provides a strong motivation for galactic colonization and the concomitant cosmic dangers. In certain social contexts, religious doctrines (i.e. mind or brain states, not free-floating ideas) can act as powerful motivational forces (meant as a heuristic description without ontological implications or connotations); this should not be underestimated or considered only with respect to Earthly circumstances. And that seems also to be the main justification for, and applicability of Stephen Hawking's warning. It is interstellar proselytization, combined with avarice and inclemency, which we should fear most – and for which there are numerous examples in human history. As Richard Dawkins once wrote (2006b, p. 330 f): "Faith cannot move mountains (though generations of children are solemnly told the contrary and believe it). But it is capable of driving people to such dangerous folly that faith seems to me to qualify as a kind of mental illness. It leads people to believe in whatever it is so strongly that in extreme cases they are prepared to kill and die for it without the need for further justification. […] Faith is powerful enough to immunize people against all appeals to pity, to forgiveness, to decent human feelings. It even immunizes them against fear, if they honestly believe that a martyr's death will send them straight to heaven. What a weapon! Religious faith deserves a chapter to itself in the annals of war technology, on an even footing with the longbow, the warhorse, the tank, and the hydrogen bomb." – Why should extraterrestrial faith be any better in these respects? 5. Discussion It is not claimed here that ETs who inhabit the Milky Way and want to contact or visit us are necessarily malevolent. On the contrary, there are also arguments suggesting that advanced civilizations should be peaceful and wise, otherwise they would have blown up themselves before colonizing space (cf. von Hoerner 2003). Thus there could be a kind of self-deselection of aggressive, destructive character traits. But this is not necessarily the case. Even if there is only one species, or just a small minority, its individuals, driven by strong ideological motivation, these alien beings might spread out across the whole galaxy if nobody can or wants to stop them. 5.1. SETI Yes, CETI No So Stephen Hawking's worries are justified: We should indeed not actively try to contact ETs because the risks are still much higher than the potential gains, and we have a lot to lose. However, this does not mean we should abandon the Search for Extraterrestrial Intelligence. On the contrary, SETI gains a further justification. It is not only basic research that might help us to better understand life and our place in the universe. It is also pre-emptive defense. If there are ETs in our neighborhood, already detectable within the limits of our current technology, we had better watch out and be prepared for contact, however and whenever it comes. At the moment it is certainly better to stay silent. If ETs are out there, they have probably spotted us already, or will soon do so. And they should be technologically more advanced (otherwise there is no need to fear them). Because of this, it should be much easier and cheaper for them to contact us. Direct messages are far more effective than all-sky transmissions. And we do not know where to send our messages. In any case it is much too early to broadcast. We know almost nothing about what is going on in outer space (if anything); we have just begun to explore radio frequencies and only recently started some searches for optical (i.e. laser) signals; but ETs might use completely different and much more effective channels like neutrinos, axions, or gravitational waves, which are still completely beyond our reach. Thus, until SETI, in its listening mode, is much more advanced than today and until we have scanned most of the sky at many different wavelengths, it is not only to early but also downright naïve to beam messages into the sky. Searching, i.e. listening, is good and important, but calling for contact, i.e. transmitting, is not. By the way this is also Stephen Hawking's position (2002, p. 65). 5.2. Accidental Existence One of the most remarkable developments in human cultural history was the recognition of our tiny place in the vast universe (or perhaps multiverse), and that we are not obviously meant to be here. The overcoming of a naïve and infantile anthropocentrism, that the universe is there for us, and, strangely connected, that an all-compassing god is there for us too (and vice versa) was one of man's great – and still not fully accomplished – achievements: an "emergence from his self-incurred immaturity" (Immanuel Kant). Darwinian theory of evolution suggested that man, and indeed life itself, was not ingeniously designed, but a result of self-organizing processes, a "fruit of chance and necessity", as Jacques Monod (1970) used to cite Democritus. Astrophysics, big bang theory and, finally, the still speculative scenarios of quantum cosmology (cf. Vaas 2009a, 2010ef) taught the same lesson albeit on much larger scales: The emergence of intelligence was more or less an accident, not meant to be there in a universe that is indifferent to life's concerns, goals and values. However, in intelligent, self-conscious beings like humans the universe at least became partly aware of itself, poetically speaking. But self- and I-consciousness also revealed the absurdity of life in the face of chance, futility and misery (Vaas 1995, 2006b & 2008b). The shirking of belief in transcendent creators or in an almighty, omnibenevolent god, though perhaps consolatory for some, cannot surmount absurdity because misery, injustice and death would be even more scandalous, thus antitheism should be the natural reaction (Vaas 1999b). Anyway, it is hard to accept for intentional, goal-oriented beings to regard the sometimes sophisticated structures of nature as the result of "blind" self-organized processes. Although exactly this is the scientific approach casting out any exigencies for design assumptions or teleological explanations, psychological resistance might prevent ETs from accepting it – as it is common here on Earth too. 5.3. Another Solution for Fermi's Paradox One might object that interstellar proselytization would be no danger but a kind of cosmic first aid – perhaps even saving us from self-destruction. Or taking ancient astronaut theories more seriously than they deserve, one might even speculate that extraterrestrial mission has already been tried on Earth. For example in their book Intelligent Life in the Universe Iosif Samuilovich Shklovskii and Carl Sagan (1966) devote a chapter to the suggestion that historians and scientists should take into account the possibility that extraterrestrial contact occurred during prehistory or recorded history. Shklovskii and Sagan stressed that these ideas were entirely unproven. But it is not absolutely impossible that cosmic Evangelists have already appeared and seeded Earth with "viruses of the mind", as Richard Dawkins (1991) characterized religious ideas. Such considerations, however, are beyond the scope of this argument. Under certain conditions religions and proselytization might or might not be beneficial. But as aggressive ideologies they would not. And this is the threat Hawking worries about – a threat nobody should deny or minimize. After all mankind's history has many examples of missionaries, the Crusades, the Conquistadors, the Inquisitions, and so on, being sent to convert other people or to kill them if they do not comply with the ideology (cf., e.g., Burman 2004; Holt 2005, Innes 2002; Schwerhoff 2004). One can also object that interstellar proselytization might threaten our freedom, but not our lives – because dead bodies cannot be converted – but who knows…? However, this could be proved wrong, not only by cosmic Armageddon doctrines – restricting freedom is necessarily life-threatening, at least for some people. And even if interstellar Evangelists chose not to kill or enslave us, do we really want to be brainwashed once more by obscure doctrines, as has happened already throughout much of human history and still happens today? We should resist false promises, metaphysical shirking and cowardice. And we should stand up for a secular naturalism including the ultimate absurdity of life and tragic individualism (Vaas 2008b); it might sound uncomfortable, but at least it seems honorable, honest, and true. If we take the idea of potentially life-threatening interstellar missionaries seriously, and it was argued here that we should, this idea could even offer a (weak-anthropic-principle- like) solution (cf. Vaas 2004) to Fermi's paradox: ETs are not here, because if they were, we wouldn't be. 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Chandra Wickramasinghe, Ph.D., Centre for Astrobiology, Cardiff University, UK On the panspermia hypothesis the genetic components that led to life on Earth are omnipresent in the galaxy, so the same or similar genes that arrived here would also arrive at the surfaces of other planets (Hoyle and Wickramasinghe, 1982; Joseph, 2009; Joseph and Schild 2010). Every niche in every habitable planet in the galaxy would then be colonized with unity probability thus leading to the widespread occurrence of microbial life. The fraction that eventually evolves into higher life is debatable, but with identical genetic structures delivered to a multitude of similar environments and planetary niches self-similar patterns of evolution and a convergence of evolution could be expected. In terrestrial life for instance, the evolution of the eye is achieved independently at least thrice. Intelligence of the kind humans process may be argued to have some measure of survival advantage in that a greater capacity to understand our environment would lead to greater skills at manipulating it to our advantage. On this basis high levels of intelligence could be understood as a cosmic evolutionary imperative. It is also unwise to regard ourselves – homo sapiens sapiens – as the culmination of this evolutionary process. With just a million years or so of human evolution towards it would seem that the experiment of intelligence has scarcely begun on Earth. Thus creatures endowed with higher levels of intelligence could well be commonplace in the Universe. Let us next estimate the number of habitable planets in our Galaxy. With about 500 exoplanets discovered thus far mostly within ~ 30 pc of us, it would be reasonable to conjecture that about 25% of main sequence stars are endowed with planets. Most of the planets that have been observed, however, are of Jupiter mass, and a large fraction orbit stars in a binary pair. It is difficult to estimate the number of planets that are in non-binary systems and therefore in stable orbits. It is only in such cases that one could expect evolution that leads to higher life and eventually intelligence. At a reasonable guess one might expect to find billion such planets corresponding to – 1% of main sequence stars. The number of planets N carrying intelligent life in the Galaxy could now be derived from a simplified form of Drake’s equation: Here n is the total number of habitable planets in the galaxy, L is the average lifetime in years of an intelligent civilization, and t is the main sequence age of a star. With t ≈ 5 x 109 yr and n ≈ 109 we then have If one now considers the expansion of a single power-hungry civilization, colonization might proceed in an expanding wavefront across the set of habitable planets as shown in Fig. 1. If to the crossing time (at one tenth the speed of light) of 300 years we add a recuperation time of say ~ 700 years, each step in the expanding wavefront would take ~ 1000 years, and to cross the entire galaxy would take a few million years. (This is a variant of the argument used earlier by Enrico Fermi to argue that if intelligent life exists elsewhere we should have been colonized already.) This argument, however, is based on the assumption that the behavior of superintelligent space colonizers could be modeled on predator-prey relationships found in lower life on the Earth, as well as on the history of our own colonization and conquest of more primitive tribes. Even with the most favourable set of assumptions the model is suspect however. With the numerical values chosen in this example, our space colonisers would need to have biological generation time (mean life-span) considerably in excess of ours. Otherwise, we have to posit that the potential predator embarks on a space voyage that benefits not its own generation but several generations into the future. No example exists on Earth where this model applies, either naturally in the living world, or in a sociological context. Indeed our modern politicians find it difficult to plan for the well-being of society beyond even a few electoral terms of office! Colonisation of a galaxy via the process of directed panspermia (Crick and Orgel, 1973) offers a much better prospect. An advanced technological civilization facing the prospect of imminent extinction may well decide to package its genetic heritage within microbes, including viruses, and launch them out into space. They might even consider targeting comets of their own planetary system as a first staging post, where gene packages might become amplified in vast numbers. The spread across the galaxy would then be greatly facilitated. No expensive rocket system is needed. The genetic packages are of the right sizes for their propulsion by the radiation pressure of starlight to be guaranteed (Wickramasinghe and Wickramasinghe, 2003; Wickramasinghe, Wickramasinghe & Napier, 2010). Although a large fraction of such space travelling genes will perish in transit, the reassembly of surviving genes on habitable planets would lead indirectly to galactic colonization. The real risk to humanity of alien life may be in the form of viral and bacterial genomes arriving at the Earth which are sometimes pathogenic (Joseph and Wickramasinghe 2010). Fred Hoyle and the present author have argued the thesis of “Diseases from Space” over several decades (Hoyle and Wickramasinghe, 1979, 1982, 1990; Hoyle et al, 1985; Wickramasinghe et al, 2003). Despite criticisms that have often been made against this concept the basic arguments remain cogent to the present day (Joseph and Wickramasinghe 2010). With increasing evidence to support the view that life could not have arisen indigenously on the Earth, the idea that the evolution of life is modulated by genes arriving from comets has acquired a new significance. Darwinian evolution operates in an open system where new genes continue to be added from a cosmic source. Pandemics of viral and bacterial disease become an inevitable part of this thesis. One could argue that if not for such genetic additions from outside, evolution would have come to a standstill a long time ago (Hoyle and Wickramasinghe, 1982; Joseph and Wickramasinghe 2010). In this context it should be noted that the human genome has recently been found to contain more than 50 percent of its content in the form of well defined inert viral genes. It is possible to understand this data if our ancestral line of descent over a few million years had suffered a succession of near-culling events following outbreaks of viral pandemics (Joseph and Wickramasinghe 2010). On each such occasion only a small breeding group survived the members of which had assimilated the virus into their reproductive line.  In conclusion, we note that the aliens we have to fear are not superintelligent creatures arriving in space ships and intending to conquer and subdue us, but sub-micron sized viral invaders that may threaten the very existence of our species. Hoyle F., Wickramasinghe N.C.(1979). Diseases from Space (J.M. Dent, Lond). Hoyle F., Wickramasinghe N.C.(1982). Proofs that Life is Cosmic. Mem. Inst. Fund. Studies Sri Lanka, No. 1 (www.panspermia.org/proofslifeiscosmic.pdf). Hoyle, F., Wickramasinghe, N.C., (1990) Influenza - evidence against contagion: discussion paper, J.Roy.Soc.Med., 83, 258. Hoyle, F., Wickramasinghe, N.C. (1986) Viruses from Space (Univ. Coll. Cardiff Press, 1986). Hoyle, F., Wickramasinghe, N.C., Watkins, J., (1985). Legionnaires’ Disease: Seeking a wider cause, The Lancet, 25 May 1985, p.1216. Joseph R. (2009). The evolution of life from other planets. Journal of Cosmology, 1, 100-200. Joseph, R. and Schild, R. (2010). Origins, evolution, and distribution of life in the cosmos: Panspermia, genetics, microbes, and viral visitors from the stars. Journal of Cosmology, 7. In press. Joseph, R., and Wickramasinghe, C. (2010). Comets and contagion: Evolution and diseases from space. ournal of Cosmology, 7. In press. Wickramasinghe, C., Wainwright, M., Narlikar, J., (2003), SARS - a clue to its origins, Lancet, Vol. 361, May 24, p.1832. Wickramasinghe N.C., Wickramasinghe J.T. (2003). Radiation pressure on bacterial clumps in the solar vicinity and their survival between interstellar transits. Astrophys. Space Sci. 286, 453 -- 459. Wickramasinghe J., Wickramasinghe N.C., Napier W.M. (2010). Comets and the Origin of Life. World Scientific, Singapore. 8. Aliens and Stephen Hawking: The Wisdom Principle. Pushkar Ganesh Vaidya, Indian Astrobiology Research Centre, Mumbai – 400103, Maharashtra, India.THE WISDOM PRINCIPLE Subjugation by aliens is a clear danger. It can be military subjugation, cultural subjugation or even misguided attempts to uplift Human civilization and in the process destroying the very nature of the Human civilization (Dick and Harrison 2000). Dr. Hawking’s assertion is analogous to what is known as the “The Wisdom Principle". It states that “Any advanced civilization in the universe does not want to be visited ‘first’ by any other more advanced civilization” (Vaidya 2002). In short, it would be ‘wise’ of a civilization to ensure that it does not play host to any advanced alien race. Interestingly though, even if we are not too keen to announce our presence, aliens can still find us. We are already detectable within 50 light-years, courtesy our transmissions and everyday a new stellar system is exposed to signals from Earth (Shostak 2003). ALIENS AND NATURAL SELECTION It has been speculated that life anywhere in the universe will be underpinned by Natural Selection. Richard Dawkins writes in The Blind Watchmaker “One way to dramatize this point is to make a prediction. I predict that, if a form of life is ever discovered in another part of the universe, however outlandish and weirdly alien that form of life may be in detail, it will be found to resemble life on earth in one key respect: it will have evolved by some kind of Darwinian natural selection” (Dawkins 1996). A similar speculation is made by John Maynard Smith in his The Theory of Evolution “Darwin's theory of evolution by natural selection is the only workable explanation that has ever been proposed for the remarkable fact of our own existence, indeed the existence of all life wherever it may turn up in the universe. It is the only known explanation for the rich diversity of animals, pants, fungi and bacteria” (Maynard Smith 2000). Just as the laws of physics have been found to hold universally; it has been speculated that the Darwinian natural selection will hold universally and so would the famous “survival of the fittest” concept. Thus, we have good reason to believe that aggressive instincts will be present in aliens as well. To what extent aliens can curb their aggressive instincts (or else they will possibly self-destruct) is anybody’s guess. Will aliens be proactively aggressive, reactively aggressive or practitioners of Gandhian non-violence? ALIENS: A WORD OF CAUTION The premise of Dr. Stephen Hawkings’s recent warning and that of the Wisdom Principle is that of caution. Do we really want technologically advanced aliens to visit us first? What would become of the human race if alien visitations became a reality? We are doing well on Earth today because we are the most intelligent and technologically advanced of all the Earthly creatures. For us to do well in the universe and be safe, we will have to be the most technologically advanced creatures in the universe or be wise enough to not get subjugated by a more technologically advanced alien civilization. If we thought the struggle for existence was over then we must think again. Dick, S., Harrison, A. (2000) Contact: Long-term Implications for Humanity. In: When SETI Succeeds: The Impact of High-Information Contact. The Foundation For the Future, Washington, pp.20. Dawkins, R. (1996). Doomed Rivals. In: The Blind Watchmaker. Norton & Company, Inc, New York, pp.288. Maynard Smith, J. (2000). Foreword to the Canto Edition. In: The Theory of Evolution, Cambridge University Press, U.K, pp. xv. Shostak, S. (2003). Can Aliens Find Us? Retrieved 12:48, April 28, 2010, from http://www.seti.org/Page.aspx?pid=751. 9. Why Should Hawking's Aliens Wish To Destroy? GianCarlo Ghirardi, Ph.D., Dept. of Physics, University of Trieste, the Abdus Salam ICTP, Trieste, Italy. It is my firm conviction that, in principle, there are no reasons to exclude that there might be living creatures on other planets or celestial bodies in the cosmos. Yet why should they wish to target and destroy the inhabited planets of the universe? To better focus the general issue let us take into account that our existence on Earth is surely quite limited on cosmological time scales, modern humans have existed for less than an eye-blink of cosmological time, and that the cosmos has a radius of various billions of light years, as well as the fact that nothing can travel faster than light. Therefore, if these hypothetical alien beings have lived in a similar time span, then the probability that by endless travel they might reach us now or in any reasonable time interval from now, is infinitesimally small. So it seems to me that Hawking's hypothesis is not unreasonable but is more in the realm of science fiction than a realistic scenario. Hawking has raised several issues which appear to me to be rather obscure and confusing. If aliens are microbes or human, why would these aliens wish to destroy human life? If an alien civilization has been able to build giant spaceships which can travel through space for many many light years and have built destructive devices which would allow them to conquer, enslave, destroy and colonize the terrestrials of Earth, then their civilization must surely be more advanced, from a scientific and technological point of view, than ours. This point of view makes also me inclined to believe that these aliens could not be like microbes or insects, at least to the extent in which we attach a precise meaning, based on our experience, to these terms. There is no evidence that microbes or insects look to the heavens and ponder questions such as "are we alone", nor is there any suggestion they would be interested in space travel. These are "human" attributes which we must not impart upon hypothetical aliens. And if Hawking's aliens are anything like humans, then I am optimistic, in a certain sense, that their scientific development should be accompained also by an ethical development, and might value life. Certainly these beings would realize that there is life on the earth, and would not be motivated to authomatically enslave or destroy other living beeings, as these are rather primitive, unthinking, reactions, and not the mark of what we might expect of a higher culture and ethics. And if life is everywhere, then it might be expected that these alien wanderers would not only see it as pointless to destroy life, but might develop a respect for all the living creatures they would have met in their endless travel. Curiosity and the desire to acquire knowledge does not equate a desire to conquer and destroy. The first "aliens" we encounter may not even be alive. I believe that a civilization which has developed robots is a civilizations of intelligent beings. Accordingly, they might very well send robots to explore the cosmos. However, this again presents us with the problem of time. The time needed to journey to Earth from the nearest solar system in which intelligent life might have been evolved, is enormous, and probably comparable to the total period of existence of the considered intelligent species. Then, which would be the purpose of sending robots to such far away regions of the cosmos that the time necessary for these robots to send back the information concerning what they have discovered would bypass the probable period of existence of the aliens of the home planety who have sent them around? Accordingly, it also seems reasonable to assume that Hawking's giant spaceship would contain both robots and their intelligent builders. Therefore, they might take their civilization with them. However, unless they have discovered the secret of eternal life and cannot evolve or change, they again might change their minds before they reach Earth, and decide not to conquer or destroy. So, there is the possibility they could come in peace and also the one that they change their minds during the many lights years such a journey would take. I am perfectly aware of the fact that I am tackling the problem by assuming a perspective that reflects, to a great extent, our present knowledge of the cosmos and of the natural and biological laws. An easy objection would be to configure the development of hybernation techniques allowing to preserve a living being for billions of years or to suggest that presently unknown topological structure of the cosmos would allow faster than light travels. And then there is the idea of "shoot first and ask questions later", a view which I do not endorse. I believe that action must be preceded by knowledge and reflection even in the case in which this might imply serious risks of destruction. 10. The Dangers of Anti-Science: Stephen Hawking’s Fear of Dangerous Aliens. Stephen Freeland, Ph.D., University of Hawaii NASA Astrobiology Institute, Institute for Astronomy, Honolulu, Hawaii, USA Scientific knowledge is quite different from the authoritatively-voiced opinions of a famous scientist. The remarkable scientific successes that have brought professor Hawking well-deserved fame (and thus a voice that the public wants to hear) also bring a responsibility to clearly distinguish these two different types of information when commenting on the potential dangers of an encounter with extra-terrestrial intelligence. Listeners are otherwise led to one of two incorrect inferences: that scientific knowledge exists where it does not, or that speculation is the best that science can currently offer. Both perceptions undermine the emerging and vibrant science of astrobiology. No one has yet come up with a scientific test for Hawking’s specific claim (and that is precisely what makes his comments unscientific) but thousands are applying their ingenuity and expertise to find ways in which science can approach aspects of the bigger questions of life’s origin(s), evolution, distribution, and future in the universe (see: http://astrobiology.nasa.gov/about-astrobiology). Ironically, on the same evening that Hawking’s opinions were aired on U.S. television, hundreds of astrobiologists were converging in League City, Texas for the annual Astriobology Science Convention-- the largest such conference in the world. Presenters include representatives from the SETI Institute, whose science focuses on the question of what science can infer regarding communications with an intelligent alien species. I doubt that any of them will be opining about the origin and early evolution of the universe as if professor Hawking’s field of science did not exist (and if they did, this would be quickly addressed by the criticisms of colleagues in the frank exchange of knowledge that marks a healthy science). But a deeper, underlying problem is that supposedly science-friendly mass media are actually weakening public understanding of what constitutes science when they replace scientific information with the opinions of a famous scientist. Scientific inquiry represents just one of several approaches by which we humans form our beliefs: alternatives include pure reasoning, “arguments from authority” and instinct. Science is distinguished from these alternatives only by its focus on what can be tested empirically. Even the most brilliant minds can perceive truths that seem rational (logical) and perhaps even obvious - but which fail when formulated as testable propositions and measured against empirical observations. Aristotle’s famously erroneous philosophy that women possess fewer teeth than men (Mayhew 2004) could have been transformed into a foundation for scientific inquiry by the simple expedient of recording careful measurements in the good-humored company of one of his wives. The problem was not that Aristotle failed to notice this possibility -indeed, he may have started with observations for all we know (Mayhew 2004)- but his sub-culture held logical reasoning superior to the information of the senses, so no supporting empirical data were offered and it was left for later investigators to find that his reasoning had failed him. Subsequent generations have worked hard to disentangle the strengths and weaknesses of Greek rational philosophy, sometimes finding that specific assertions possessed no more solid foundation than the authority of a famous voice. The emergence of modern science is largely the story of its invention and runaway success as a tool for distinguishing between good and bad ideas of 'natural philosophy'. This success has gone on to shape a culture that now values empirical evidence above reason: the information of our senses, properly channeled into scientific tests, is widely held as the ultimate arbiter of truth (Evidence for this widespread cultural perspective is seen, for example, in the popularity of crime-related entertainment where detectives follow the empirical clues to confound prejudice and common-sense; the recent trend for forensic science to play a central role merely emphasizes this point). In this context, it undermines the very notion that science has brought us progress if we now turn and blur the distinction between scientist and science. Scientists, like rational philosophers, are humans and prone to the same range of belief-forming tendencies as the rest of us whenever they are not actively practicing their science: even the most extraordinary achievements in one dimension of scientific inquiry do not imbue a scientist’s beliefs with automatic credibility on any other topic. One example of direct relevance to the theme of panspermia concerns sir Fred Hoyle’s infamous statements for disbelieving conventional science of biological evolution (Hoyle 1981). Although most evolutionary scientists utterly reject the “Hoyle Fallacy” as a trivial error (e.g. Dawkins 1986), Hoyle's opinions still routinely appear four decades later in anti-evolutionary literature as evidence that eminent scientists have found fundamental flaws in the theory of evolution ( Institute for Creation Research: http://www.icr.org/article/243/). Thus, when Stephen Hawking (or any other scientist) find themselves speaking as a scientist on the likely nature of visiting aliens, they have a responsibility to defend the integrity of science by either demonstrating the scientific basis (empirical tests) for what is being said, or clearly explaining the other (non-scientific) credentials for their information. Failure to do so can hardly help the growing problem of scientific illiteracy in the USA and elsewhere (California Academy of Sciences 2009). Dawkins R. (1986). The Blind Watchmaker. Harlow: Longman Scientific & Technical. Hoyle, F. (1981). In "Hoyle on Evolution", Nature, 294, 105. Mayhew, R. (2004). The Female in Aristotle's Biology. Reason or Rationalization. Chicago: University of Chicago Press, 2004. Pp. x, 128. ISBN 0-226-51200-2. 11. Who’s Afraid of Hawking’s Aliens? Arpita Roy, Ph.D.1, James D. Wells, Ph.D.2,3, 1Department of Anthropology, University of California, Berkeley Berkeley, CA USA, 2CERN, Theory Group 385 Route de Meyrin CH-1211 Geneva 23, Switzerland, 3 Department of Physics, University of Michigan, Ann Arbor Ann Arbor, MI USA A dog discovers another dog at a garbage dump. The first dog bares its teeth. This stimulates the other dog to respond by a growl. The most interesting aspects of this encounter are the signs and the stimulus given off, the absence of any verbal communication, and the sizing-up prowl of the animals. The mere sighting of the “other” is not inherently dangerous, but the subsequent engagement can be if one views it in his best interest to fight for whatever reason. Hawking’s comment on the dangers of seeking out aliens (Hawking, 2010) provokes us to think not so much on whether aliens exist or not but on our capacity to imagine what they could be like if they were to exist, the scenarios of possible interaction, and the pragmatics of contact. Engagement with the extraterrestrial has three stages: discovery, monitoring, and contact. Discovery can be safe -- we passively look for signals of alien activity from afar. There is no reason not to do that. We would be imprudent even not to. America spies on Canada, to name just one other hyper-careful act. On the other hand, it is not prudent to send out probes into the cosmos with a plaque bearing our return address as was the case with the Pioneer 10 and 11 space crafts, launched in 1972 and 1973. Monitoring leads to risks as we may wish to utilize interventionist technologies to find out more, or simply approach to study the phenomenon at close range, thus provoking a reaction. Here extreme caution should be displayed, and contingencies envisioning all possible consequences should be formulated. Contact is even more risky, with the prospect of malevolent beings colonizing and plundering us, or even benevolent or dispassionate beings unwittingly spreading diseases or agents that would destroy us. Hawking mentions the aftermath of Columbus' discovery, but it was not guns and superior technology which destroyed the Aztec civilization, but the microbes, viruses, and disease which the would be conquerers carried with them. If aliens exist, it is inevitable that someday there will be contact. We are fully engaged in the discovery phase now, and our curiosity will inevitably lead us to contact, if they exist. They might give us insight into the origin of life and our place in the universe. Is there a purpose to life, or is it all a cruel cosmic joke? Christians might ask: "Did Christ die on the cross for them?" Others might ask: "Do they believe in god"? Humans look to the heavens for answers, and we might assume that what might bind us to aliens of other worlds is our desire to know more. Hawking tells us that our curiosity may kill the cat, that looking to space for others of our kind may lead to the extinction of the human race. But this search for answers is also what makes us. We must know, even if it spells our doom, just as the male Black Widow spider must mate even though it spells his doom. Be it radio and TV signals beamed into space, gold anodized plaques with our return address attached, or the many government and non-government programs designed to search the heavens for signs of life, if there is intelligent alien life, then someday contact will happen. Despite Hawking’s warnings, the search continues. Contemplation of alien life has moved up from popular films to peer reviewed journals, “one of the sacred pillars of the scientific edifice” (Goodstein, 2000). Experimental studies and computer simulations suggest (Xie et al., 2010) that the cosmos is brimming with life-friendly Earth-like planets in the near cosmos. NASA and other space agencies have an ambitious program for the discovery of living planets under the name PlanetQuest (NASA, 2010). These include the current Kepler Mission, which has already launched and achieved data (Borucki et al., 2010), and the future Terrestrial Planet Finder mission, which is slated for launch in the near future. We are making serious scientific efforts to discover if aliens exist, what they may be like, and on what planets might they live. Perhaps we should pay heed to the findings detailed in a Brookings Report written nearly a half a century ago (Michael, 1961): "anthropological files contain many examples of societies, sure of their place in the universe, which have disintegrated when they had to associate with previously unfamiliar societies espousing different ideas and different life ways; others that survived such an experience usually did so by paying the price of changes in values and attitudes and behavior." History has taught us there may be a price for the search for knowledge. And the anthropological record is replete with deadly encounters which led to the demise of those who were not prepared or equal to the challenge, such as the Neanderthals’ encounter with modern humans 30,000 years ago. However, we see no reason why we should be more afraid or less afraid this time than in the past. In the space between paranoia and speculation, lie the clues we can pursue by diligent anthropological, astrophysical, and biological detective work, which may enable us to conceive and to prepare for the inevitable contact with intelligent aliens. In the process of this search for answers we may discover our own self just as an infant seeing its own image in the mirror marks the first step in the child’s identification of its "self" (Lacan, 1968). It has been said that we are defined by what we are, and what we are not. Otherness, what is alien, can also be a mirror that leads to self-discovery. Unresolved questions of our own origin and development may be fruitfully explored while working on shadowy aliens. The trope of alterity that the alien offers is a bona fide muse (Mack, 1994). Albee’s masterpiece "Who's Afraid of Virginia Woolf?" is a story replete with symbolism which speaks to the illusions which bind human relationships, but which are destroyed by the discovery of a son’s existence. The "discovery" leaves them devastated – the original believers and nonbelievers alike. So too might the discovery of alien life devastate believers and non-believers alike. This is a price that throughout history, humans have been willing to pay, and it is this search which defines us and distinguishes us, as human. Stephen Hawking says, “To my mathematical brain, the numbers alone make thinking about aliens perfectly rational” (Hawking, 2010). Even if aliens are nonexistent or there is no hope of contact, may the illusion continue – it serves us well. Goodstein, D. (2000). How Science Works. In: Reference Manual on Scientific Evidence, 2nd edn, Washington, DC: Federal Judicial Center, pp. 67-82. Hawking, S. (2010) As quoted in “Abstract: Stephen Hawking’s Aliens”, Journal of Cosmology, Vol 7 (May). Lacan, J. (1968). The Mirror-Phase as Formative of the Function of the 1. Trans. Jean Roussel. New Left Review, 51, 73-83. Mack, J.E. (1994). Abduction: Human Encounters with Aliens. New York: Maxwell Mamillan International. Michael, D.N., ed. (1961). Proposed Studies on the Implications of Peaceful Space Activities for Human Affairs. Brookings Institution to the 87th U.S. Congress, report No. 242. Washington, D.C.: National Aeronautics and Space Administration. NASA (2010). PlanetQuest: Exoplanet Exploration. http://planetquest.jpl.nasa.gov/ (Accessed 29 April 2010). Xie, J.-W, Zhou, J.-L., Ge, J. (2010). Planetesimal Accretion in Binary Systems: Could Planets Form Around Alpha Centauri B? Astrophys J, 708, 1566. 12. Stephen Hawking Is Wrong. Earth Would Not Be A Target For Alien Conquest. Harold A. Geller, Ph.D., George Mason University, USA On 25 April 2010 Stephen Hawking was widely quoted as saying that our species should not try to talk to aliens (Leake, 2010). As detailed in the Abstract to these commentaries, Hawking is quoted as saying that “if aliens ever visit us, I think the outcome would be much as when Christopher Columbus first landed in America, which didn’t turn out very well for the Native Americans.” It should be noted immediately that there are several flaws in the Hawking analogy to the invasion by White men of the Americas. The motives of the invading Whites would be nothing like those of aliens who might contact Earth. European explorers and Native Americans, in the days of Columbus and today still, were of the same species, Homo sapiens sapiens, which consists of males and females. Inevitably, sexual relations were a natural consequence of contact, and which produced viable offspring. Furthermore, both have the same physical, chemical, mental and intellectual attributes which mark both as human. Aliens from another planet outside our solar system will most likely not be of the same species as that of Earth. Humans killing humans poses a decidedly moral dilemma (Washburn, 1957). Aliens killing humans, or humans killing aliens may also pose a moral dilemma, but then it may not. Humans kill for sport, and for access to resources. Competition for scarce resources leads to conflict. But would aliens, as Hawking's envisions them, be interested in the same resources which are of value to the humans of Earth? The probability that intelligent beings from another star system would share a common biology, chemistry, psychology and sociology with humans might be infinitesimally small. Therefore, it would be unlikely they would compete with humans for sex partners, as the biological purpose of sex is reproduction. If alien biology and chemistry is significantly different form humans, not only would they be unable to reproduce offspring with the humans of Earth, but they may not be interested in the same resources. For example, whereas humans consist of right handed sugars and left handed amino acids exclusively, such is not likely (p=0.25) to be the case with alien species assuming they use sugars and amino acids (Zubay, 2000). Would Hawking's aliens also use ATP as their cellular energy transfer molecule? Although this is not a determinable likelihood, but if not, then it can be assumed that Hawking's aliens would not be interested in preying upon and consuming humans or other animals or vegetable matter as an energy source. Why would an alien species bother with our cellular bodies? Furthermore, if the alien species has, as Hawking states “used up all the resources from their home planet,” why bother to traverse interstellar space for these resources? The resources available to the alien species are much more likely to be available on other planets in the alien’s home solar system, and can be acquired at a much reduced energy cost. But Hawking may insist that the aliens have used up all the resources in their star’s system. However, if Hawking's aliens are sufficiently intelligent to exploit all sources of energy, including from their sun, wouldn't they also be intelligent or wise enough to plan ahead for the future so they do not consume all their energy sources? And if they did not plan ahead, how is it then they would have enough energy available to supply a fleet of giant space ships to travel across interstellar space to far away and distant planets? An expedition, or alien armada targeting Earth, also implies that the aliens knew years in advance that another star system exists which would be ideal for them. However, if that were the case, then they would logically immediately disperse an expedition to that star system and not use up their own system’s resources first. While this may be analogous to the colonization of the Americas here on Earth, the time required to cross interstellar space is not analogous to the time required to cross the Atlantic Ocean, even in 1492. This appears to lead to a circular reason for any space travel by such a civilization, and it ignores the energy requirements of space travel itself, which have long been known (McNutt et al., 2002). Research into the energy requirements of interstellar space travel has determined that energy efficient mechanisms must be developed which require at the very minimal, an energy equivalence to fusion reactors, or even better, anti-matter reactors (Crawford, 1990). Such energy efficient mechanisms for propelling space craft interstellar distances would likely be fueled by some form of hydrogen or one of its isotopes. This leads one to believe that the largest requirement of an interstellar alien species would be hydrogen or some isotope thereof. Why go to another star system just for hydrogen, the most abundant chemical element in the universe? It is simply not reasonable that such aliens would traipse about the galaxy just to pilfer the puny resources of a tiny planet laden with such heavy elements when it is the lightest most abundant gasses they would most likely require. As to the possibility Hawking's aliens might desire heavy metal elements such as would be found on a planet like Earth, these same elements could be produced as the byproduct of a fusion engine, the very source of energy which may be used by any space faring alien civilization (Crawford, 1990). In fact, as far back as 1986, Michael Harris of the University of Texas suggested that gamma-ray telescopes could be used to search the skies for the exhaust of interstellar spacecraft, as the exhaust would most definitely include gamma-ray radiation (Harris, 1986). Then there is the energy of the sun. Our galaxy is estimated to contain at least 500 billion stars. Andromeda is believed to consist of over a trillion suns (Mould, et al., 2008). If it is the energy of the sun they require, then given the rather small stature of our sun, and the greater abundance of more desirable and larger stars, it would seem the Earth and our solar system would not be of interest to alien invaders. Thus, it would appear that Professor Hawking is needlessly worrying about invasion and conquest by aliens. Also, it is way too late for any ban on communications which might be intercepted by extraterrestrial intelligences. This planet has emanated radio frequency electromagnetic radiation in all directions for the better part of a century. If there were an alien species listening within 50 light years or so, and if they were capable, they will be here soon enough. And if they are able to make the voyage, they won’t do so to get a natural resource that they can easily produce from nearby stars, hydrogen gas, or the very engines that bring them to this planet. Harris, M. J. (1986). On the detectability of antimatter propulsion spacecraft. Astrophysics and Space Science, 123: 197-203. Leake, J. (2010). Don’t talk to aliens, warns Stephen Hawking. The Sunday Times, 25 April 2010, available online at http://www.timesonline.co.uk/tol/news/science/space/article7107207.ece McNutt, R.L., Andrews, G.B., McAdams, J., Gold, R.E., Santo, A., Oursler, D., Heeres, K., Fraeman, M., and Williams, B. (2003). Low-cost interstellar probe. Acta Astronautica, 52: 267-279. Mould, J., et al., (2008). A Point-Source Survey of M31 with the Spitzer Space Telescope. ApJ 687 230-241. Washburn, W.E. (1957). A Moral History of Indian-White Relations: Needs and Opportunities for Study. Ethnohistory, 4(1): 47-61. Zubay, G. (2000). Origins of Life on the Earth and in the Cosmos. New York: Harcourt Academic Press. 13. Uninvited Guests, Peter Sturrock, Ph.D., Emeritus Professor of Applied Physics, Stanford University, Stanford, CA, USA. Dr. Stephen Hawking has recently speculated about the danger that Earth may receive uninvited visitors from outer space. He raises an important issue that needs to be taken seriously. However, he does not begin at the beginning: Hawking neglects to ask whether the Earth has already received such visitors. This is a question that I have thought about for some time, and I find that it does not admit of a simple, definitive answer. One can find evidence that is suggestive of visitation, but hard evidence is either elusive or non-existent. Nevertheless, if the scientific community is going to start thinking honestly and open-mindedly about alien visitation, it would be unscientific to ignore any potentially relevant evidence, including so-called “UFO” reports. This will not be an easy undertaking: if we give credence only to reports that make sense to us and that describe phenomena we can readily understand in terms of our current scientific knowledge, we may well be throwing out the baby with the bathwater. Arthur C. Clarke’s third law is that “Any sufficiently advanced technology is indistinguishable from magic.” So maybe we need to deliberately seek out phenomena that do not make sense, and are incompatible with our current scientific knowledge. No one said that revolutionary science should be easy. In 1975, I carried out a survey of the membership of the American Astronomical Society to solicit opinions concerning the so-called “UFO” phenomenon, focusing on two questions: (1) Did the respondent consider that the topic deserved scientific investigation? and (2) Had the respondent ever witnessed an event that seemed related to so-called UFO reports? Most respondents replied positively to the first question, and 5 percent responded positively to the second question. (For details, see Sturrock 2009). In 1997, at the initiative of the late Laurance S. Rockefeller, I organized a review of possible physical evidence. This event involved a panel of nine distinguished scientists, co-chaired by Dr. Von Eshleman and Dr. Thomas Holzer, and eight experienced UFO investigators (Sturrock 1999). The review panel was understandably and appropriately cautious in formulating their conclusions, but they made the following observations: and Whenever there are unexplained observations, there is the possibility that scientists will learn something new by studying those observations. Reflecting on Hawking’s concerns about “alien predators who may arrive in giant space ships to conquer… and to exploit the resources of Earth,” I would suggest that aliens may not all be the same. Any species that has a secure and happy home may well have a benevolent attitude towards our adolescent civilization on Earth, but any species that is on a dying planet, and is desperately trying to find somewhere else to live, may not have our best interests at heart. To look on the bright side - advanced civilizations may have a code of ethics that would give us some protection. But—to look on the dark side—they may not. If we do still have a choice of trying to make contact with alien civilizations (wherever they may be) or keeping quiet, my personal recommendation would be the latter. Dr. Hawking has raised provocative questions that deserve careful study including theoretical analyses and other forms of speculation. However, we should also reflect carefully on his basic but unstated assumption that Earth has not already received uninvited guests. Sturrock, P. A. (1999). The UFO Enigma, Warner Books, New York. Sturrock, P. A. (2009). A Tale of Two Sciences: Memoirs of a Dissident Scientist. Exoscience. 14. Evolution and Alien Visitors From the Stars, Rhawn Joseph, Ph.D. -Emeritus, Brain Research Laboratory, Northern California.   In 1977 NASA sent a complex recorded message to the peoples of other planets: the Voyager Golden Record, which was attached to the Voyager spacecraft. This was NASA's way of saying to Aliens: "hello!" So far, Aliens have not responded. REACHING OUT TO PREDATORY PLANETS? If there is complex ET life, is it a bad idea to make our presence known? Are we announcing to predators: "Come and get it?" or to would be conquerers: "We have a great planet, why don't you kill us and make it your own?!!" If "aliens" are anything like humans, then perhaps we should be afraid, very afraid.... for the likelihood is they would conquer, destroy, exploit, and enslave. And if they came in peace, the likelihood is the humans of Earth would attack them and seek to conquer, exploit, "study," and enslave... ARE WE ALONE? Some scientists believe life exists only on Earth. Others such as Beer, King, Livio, and Pringle, propose that life in the universe is rare. Nobel Laureates Svante Arrhenius and Francis Crick, and esteemed scientists including Lord Kelvin, Hermann von Helmholtz, Sir Fred Hoyle and Chandra Wickramasinghe, are of the opinion that life may be pervasive throughout the cosmos. This is also the view of this author: the genetic seeds of life swarm throughout the cosmos and life arrived on the early Earth buried in planetary debris; the possible remnants of the parent star which gave birth to our own (Joseph 2009a,b; Joseph and Schild 2010a,b). If these theories are correct, life may have taken root and evolved on innumerable worlds much older than our own. Or perhaps ET life is limited to microbes, or ET does not exist at all. From the perspective of a hypothetical ET, maybe what has taken place on this planet is so common and mundane, there is no motivation to communicate with a world that is just like a trillion other planets swarming with human-like creatures. Or maybe the humans of Earth are so violent we have been cut off from the rest of the cosmos, isolated, like a disease. The nature of life, is death, over 99% of all species have become extinct. If the history of the Earth were a 24-hour clock, fully modern humans have been on this planet for only 15 seconds. Unlike other animals, humans flirt with species-wide mass suicide and mutual self-destruction. The human animal can also become extinct. Maybe this is what the future has in store. If human life evolved on other worlds, perhaps they are no more; self-destructing in poisoned planets or the nuclear fires of their own making. Maybe this is a pattern throughout the cosmos: humans evolve and destroy human-life, bequeathing their planets to insects and microbes: the end. ...And before the universe could take a breath, they were no more. EXTRATERRESTRIALS: WHERE ARE THEY? Given our own curiosity as to life elsewhere in the cosmos, it is certainly conceivable that some of those who have evolved in the more ancient corners of the cosmos might be interested in and quite capable of not just observing, but visiting the Earth. If that is the case, it might be asked, then why don't they announce themselves and open up lines of communication? Perhaps, like good anthropologists they merely observe and gather information, and for the most part leave Earthlings to behave largely unmolested. Speculating wildly, maybe it is even against some type of Cosmic law. Or there is little or no motivation to visit a world that is just like a trillion other planets swarming with violent, sex-obsessed, power-hungry human-like creatures. Or, perhaps the humans that evolved on other worlds self-destructed in the nuclear fires of their own making. That is, life appears, undergoes metamorphosis, humans emerge only to destroy human-life, the end. As humans have a propensity for exploration, curiosity and the seeking of knowledge, it could be assumed that those aliens who have reached a similar or advanced level of neurological development would, like Earthlings, share similar social- emotional, and intellectual inclinations, including curiosity, jealously, and pride. Regardless of differences in physical appearance, some advanced alien species -at least those who have evolved from mammal-like creatures- would likely behave, feel, and think in a manner grossly similar to human earthlings. For example, like humans, it might be expected that some aliens would thirst for knowledge, or revel in games, sports, competition, conquest, exploitative acquisition, and the glory of rape and slaughter of war. Like modern humans, some aliens would be conquering, enslaving, predatory killers, with little or no compassion for the vanquished. Some aliens might be expected to behave in an irrational and destructive manner, whereas yet others would be seekers of knowledge, wisdom, and spiritual growth. It is naive, however, to believe that radio or TV transmissions are a yardstick for the measure of intelligent alien life. Highly creative, artistic, talented, and intelligent humans sporting a brain 1/3 larger than modern humans, stalked the Earth over 30,000 years ago. Without benefit of radio, TV, or electricity, Neolithic cultures built Stonehenge, the ancient Egyptians erected the pyramids and in ancient China the "Great Wall." The ancient Babylonians, Persians, Greeks, Romans, Mayans, and peoples of India, and so on, developed science, culture, religion, and created monumental buildings, temples, and empires--all without the benefit of radio, TV or vehicles which could propel them through space. The failure to detect electronic transmissions or space craft from other planets does not mean we are "alone." Moreover, on some worlds, highly intelligent species, with an intellect comparable or far superior to humans, may have "evolved" from mammals other than primates, such as wolves and canines, or even insects or plants. Indeed, there may be "dog stars" where upright Canis sapiens sapiens stare into space wondering if they are alone; and planets blooming and buzzing with highly evolved intelligent vegetable and insect life. On some ancient worlds, mammals may never have evolved, such that the metamorphosis of increasingly intelligent life arose from a completely different branch of the forest of life. The direct line leading to hominids may have been killed off due, perhaps, to that planet's unique environment, climate, atmosphere, gravity, and distance from the sun, and/or because the planet passed through a viral cloud of contagion or was struck by massive debris which chopped off the branch that would lead to primates just before that branch began to bloom. EVOLUTION IN THE ANCIENT CORNERS OF THE COSMOS Consider, as a further thought experiments, the future of human evolution on this planet. If science marches on, and given advances in genetic engineering, the creation of designer babies, designer babies designing their own superior babies, future humans which genetically engineer their own brains and bodies... and imagine the nature of human life 1000 years from now. What of humans a million years from now? Or a hundred million? Or a billion? Then what of those planets which shine in the darkness of night which were formed billions of years before the Earth became a twinkle in god's eye. If life evolved on these ancient worlds, what might they be capable of as compared to the humans of Earth? From the perspective of modern humans, these evolutionary advanced alien humans might seem as gods, even if they were still humans. And modern humans might seem like reptiles in comparison. Indeed, even the "gods" may have "gods" who have "gods", and if some of these "gods" are devils and if they ever set their alien eyes on planet Earth, Hawking's nightmare vision could become a hellish reality. Joseph, R. (2009b). The evolution of life from other planets. Journal of Cosmology, 1, 100-150. Joseph R., and Schild, R. (2010a). Origins, Evolution, and Distribution of Life in the Cosmos: Panspermia, Genetics, Microbes, and Viral Visitors From the Stars. Journal of Cosmology, 2010, Vol 7, IN PRESS Joseph R., and Schild, R. (2010b). Biological Cosmology and the Origins of Life in the Universe. Journal of Cosmology, 5, 1040-1090. Joseph, R., and Wickramasinghe, C. (2010). Comets and contagion: Evolution and diseases from space. Journal of Cosmology, 7. In press. |
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