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Saturday, August 2, 2014

U.S. Racial Population Projections

U.S. Racial Population Projections

U.S. Racial Population Projections 
Table key:
m = million
% of pop. = percentage of total population;
Pop. 15-44 = population age 15-44
Pop. 0-14 = population age 0-14
% of 15-44 = percent of total population age 15-44
% of 0-14 = percent of total population age 0-14
Table I: U.S. Population by Race 1880-2050
188019701992202020502050 w/Zero Immigration
TOTAL50.2m203m255m323m383m301m
Pop. 15-44n/an/a118.8m125.2m144.2m108.3m
Pop. 0-14n/an/a55.3m63.6m73.6m55.6m
Nordish42m134.8m145.5m153m142m139m
% of pop.83.5%66.3%57%47.3%37%46.2%
Pop. 15-44n/an/a64m54.7m47.9m47m
% of 15-44n/an/a54%43.7%33.2%43.4%
Pop. 0-14n/an/a27.9m24.9m21.4m21m
% of 0-14n/an/a50.5%39.1%29.1%37.8%
% of birthsn/a62%47.5%38%27%34.4%
188019701992202020502050 w/Zero Immigration
Alpine,Ladogan and Dinaric1.3m19.1m21.5m24m23m22m
% of pop.2.6%9.4%8.5%7.4%6%7.3%
Pop. 15-44n/an/a10m8.5m7.5m7.3m
% of 15-44n/an/a8.4%6.8%5.2%6.7%
Pop. 0-14n/an/a4.6m4.1m3.5m3.4m
% of 0-14n/an/a8.3%6.4%4.8%6.1%
% of birthsn/a8.5%7.5%5.5%4%5.5%
Mediterranid, Armenid, etc.2m14.2m24m29m38.3m26m
% of pop..4%7%9.5%9%10%8.6%
Pop. 15-44n/an/a11.5m11.8m14.1m9.1m
% of 15-44n/an/a9.7%9.4%9.8%8.4%
Pop. 0-14n/an/a5.5m5.6m7.1m4.7m
% of 0-14n/an/a9.9%8.8%9.6%8.2%
% of birthsn/a6.5%10%8.5%9%8%
188019701992202020502050 w/Zero Immigration
Hispanic
.3m6.5m24m49m81m47.6m
% of pop..6%3.2%9%15.2%21%15.8%
Pop. 15-44n/an/a12.8m21.4m33.5m19.5m
% of 15-44n/an/a10.8%17.1%23.2%18%
Pop. 0-14n/an/a7.4m12.7m18.8m11.7m
% of 0-14n/an/a13.2%19.9%25.6%21%
% of birthsn/a5.2%13.5%21%26%23%
Congoid6m22.6m32m43m62m51.4m
% of pop.12%11.1%12%13.3%16%17%
Pop. 15-44n/an/a15m17.7m23m19.5m
% of 15-44n/an/a12.6%14.2%16%18%
Pop. 0-14n/an/a8.5m10.8m14m11.7m
% of 0-14n/an/a15.2%16.9%19.1%21%
% of birthsn/a16%16.5%18%21%23%
188019701992202020502050 w/Zero Immigration
Asian.3m2.1m8m22m41m11m
% of pop..6%1%3%6.8%11%3.7%
Pop. 15-44n/an/a4.3m9.8m16.4m4.4m
% of 15-44n/an/a3.7%7.8%11.4%4%
Pop. 0-14n/an/a2m4.8m7.6m2.3m
% of 0-14n/an/a3.7%7.5%10.3%4.1%
% of birthsn/a1.2%4%7.7%11%4.1%
Amerindian.15m.8m2m2.7m5m4m
% of pop..3%.4%.8%.84%1.3%1.3%
% of birthsn/a.6%1%1.3%2%2%
Table II: Nordish Projections Adjusted for Effects of Racial Intermixture
188019701992202020502050 w/Zero Immigration
TOTAL50.2m203m255m323m383m301m
Pop. 15-44n/an/a118.8m125.2m144.2m108.3m
Pop. 0-14n/an/a55.3m63.6m73.6m55.6m
Nordish42m134.8m145.5m148.6m123.9m124.9m
% of pop.83.5%66.3%57%46%32.4%41.5%
Pop. 15-44n/an/a64m52.8m40.2m40.5m
% of 15-44n/an/a54%42.2%27.9%37.4%
Pop. 0-14n/an/a27.7m22.4m15m15.7m
% of 0-14n/an/a50.1%35.2%20.4%28.2%
% of birthsn/a62%46%32%20%28%

The Mediterranid category includes Orientalids, Armenids, Turanids and Irano-Afghans, a racial grouping which includes nearly all North Africans and Southwest Asians (the Arab, Iranian, Afghan, Turkish and other “Middle Eastern” peoples) as well as most Southern Europeans. The U.S. Census Bureau classifies all these groups as “White.”
The “Hispanic” category is racially diverse, but consists mainly (about 90%) of persons of whole or mixed (Mestizo) Amerindian ancestry from Mexico or Central and South America. The remainder (about 10%) are mostly Mediterranid or Congoid.
The Asian category (per U.S. Census Bureau classification) includes Asian Indians and Pakistanis as well as East Asians and Pacific Islanders.
The last three columns (columns four, five and six) in Table I are projections based on a study by demographer Jennifer Cheeseman Day, Population Projections of the United States, by Age, Sex, Race, and Hispanic Origin: 1992 to 2050 , U.S. Bureau of the Census, Current Population Reports, P25-1092, U.S. Government Printing Office, Washington, DC, 1992.
Population changes are primarily determined by three factors — birthrates, immigration rates, and the rate of intermixture between the different elements in the population. The fourth and fifth columns are projections based on the assumption that the demographic trends of the 1980s and early 1990s will continue until 2050. These trends include a birthrate of 1.85 for “Non-Hispanic Whites” (a Census Bureau category consisting of the Nordish, Alpine and Mediterranid categories), 2.45 for “Blacks” (Congoids), 2.68 for Hispanics, 2.9 for Amerindians, 2.3 for Asians, and an immigration level of 880,000 per year (680,000 legal and 200,000 illegal) of which 174,000 would be White (mostly Mediterranid from northern Africa and southwest Asia), 60,000 Black, 324,000 Hispanic and 323,000 Asian. Based on these levels of immigration, which could be greatly exceeded (the actual level of legal immigration in the early 1990s was 1.5 million annually), the study predicts that 81 million members (or 21%) of the population of 2050 will consist of post-1991 immigrants and their descendants (over 95% of whom will be non-Nordish). The sixth or last column assumes the same birthrates, but assumes zero immigration between 1992 and 2050. It shows that even with zero immigration the Nordish element would still be gradually replaced, although at a slower rate. Within a year of the release of the above study its author was already revising her assumptions and projections regarding the Hispanic population, raising their birthrate to 2.9, and increasing their numbers in 2050 by 9 million from 81 to 90 million, and the total population from 383 to 392 million. Sun-Sentinel (Ft. Lauderdale), Sept. 29, 1993, p. 1A. A later Census Bureau projection estimated a U.S. population of 325.9 million in the year 2020, with 51.2 million (15.7%) Hispanic and 45.4 million (13.9%) Congoid. The Miami Herald , April 21, 1994, p. 1A.
The study has one crucial flaw: it effectively omits one of the three factors that determine population change — the rate of intermixture between the different racial elements. It does not allow for the effects of racial interbreeding. It assigns all children born after 1992 to the same race as their mother regardless of the race of their father and the child’s own actual racial identity, which in the case of racial mixture is often markedly different from that of the mother, especially if the mother’s genes are recessive and effectively negated or significantly diminished by the intermixture. This is a critical omission, for although the rate of racial intermixture is difficult to predict its effects are likely to be dramatic if current trends continue, especially among the Nordish population whose genes are commonly recessive and either negated or significantly diminished when mixed with other races. For example, if 6% of the children born to Nordish mothers were racially-mixed children whose racial identity was not Nordish, the real Nordish birthrate would be reduced from 1.8 to 1.7 (or from 14% to 19% below the replacement rate of 2.1). To correct this omission Table II is adjusted to allow for the effects on the Nordish population of an intermixture rate of 6% during the period from 1990 to 2000, 10% from 2000 to 2020, 15% from 2020 to 2030, and 20% from 2030-2050. It also allows for the compounding or cumulative effects of intermixture with each new generation (allowing thirty years per generation). The last column, based on zero immigration, lowers the assumed rate of intermixture for the period from 2030 to 2050 to 16.5% on the grounds that the pool of potential non-Nordish mates available for intermixture would be smaller.
In Table I the assumed rates of non-Nordish immigration and births cause a relative decline of the Nordish population in proportion to the others (i.e., in terms of population share), while the assumed Nordish birthrate causes an absolute decline in numbers. In Table II the assumed rate of intermixture increases both the relative and absolute decline in both the proportions and numbers of the Nordish population.
The rate of intermixture is determined by three factors — the relative proportions of different racial elements in the population, the extent of contact between the races, and the degree of racial discrimination in the selection of mates. The rate of intermixture is effectively limited by the proportions of different races in a population. In a monoracial society different races are not present, resulting in reproductive isolation and the effective prevention of intermixture. If other races are present only as a very small minority the rate of intermixture is still necessarily limited to a low level. When other races are present in numbers equal to or exceeding that of a particular race the potential rate of intermixture for that race is effectively unlimited. Within the given proportions of different races in a population, the actual rate of intermixture is determined by the extent of contact between the races and the degree of racial discrimination in the selection of mates. The greater the extent of contact between the races the higher the rate of intermixture will tend to be. To the degree that contact between the races is minimized or prevented, a degree of reproductive isolation is present which reduces the rate of intermixture. If contact between the races is extensive there is no reproductive isolation and racial discrimination in the selection of mates becomes the only effective limit on the rate of intermixture. If two races are present in equal numbers, and contact between and within the races is equally extensive, so that 50% of the pool of potential mates are from each race, there should be a 50% rate of intermixture if there is no racial discrimination in the selection of mates. If the degree of racial discrimination is 50% the rate of intermixture would be 25%. Although the rate of Nordish intermixture with other races is difficult to predict, it is likely to increase due to a number of interrelated and interacting trends, including increasing proportions of other races in the population and thus in the pool of potential mates, more extensive contact between the races, a decreasing level of racial discrimination in the selection of mates, cultural and ideological influences, and the “snowballing” effect — the increasing momentum or velocity in the rate of intermixture — caused by the increasing numbers of mixed-race persons themselves.
Allowing for intermixture, my projections in generation intervals of 30 years for the under-15 age group of the Nordish population in the U.S., which in 1992 was 27.7 million, are as follows: 2020 = 22.4 million; 2050 = 15 million; 2080 = 9 million; 2110 = 5 million; 2140 = 2.7 million (i.e., a 90% reduction in 150 years). This projection is based on the assumption that fully 50% of each Nordish generation would strictly discriminate on racial grounds in their selection of a mate and refuse to mate with a member of another race or a racially-mixed person who is only partly of their own race. The other 50% would not racially discriminate in their choice of a mate, with the consequence that the racial proportions among their mates would reflect the racial proportions of the population (specifically, the pool of prospective mates) as a whole. (Thus the 15 million Nordish-Americans of the under-15 generation of 2050 would comprise only about 20% of their generation of Americans as a whole, so that 50%, or 7.5 million, who racially discriminated in their choice of a mate, and 20% of the remainder, or 1.5 million, who did not racially discriminate but by chance chose a mate of their own race, totaling 9 million, would produce the 9 million Nordish-Americans of the generation of 2080.) Since each Nordish generation would constitute an ever smaller proportion of the total population, it would be increasingly difficult for 50% to racially discriminate successfully in their choice of mates. Even among the current generation of Nordish youth, who have been heavily indoctrinated with the racial nihilist belief that any kind of racial discrimination is morally evil, it is unlikely that 50% would practice strict racial discrimination in the choice of a mate.
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