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Thursday, March 30, 2017

Soeren Kern : Germany's Muslim Demographic Future


  • Critics of Germany's open-door immigration policy are warning that the recent surge in Germany's Muslim population — which surpassed six million in 2016 for the first time — has already changed the face of the country forever.
  • The price for reversing Germany's demographic decline appears to be the further Islamization of Germany under the guise of multiculturalism.
  • With a fertility rate of 1.6 births per woman, well below the replacement rate of 2.1, Germany will require a permanent influx of 300,000 migrants per year in order keep the current population level stable through the year 2060, according to the report.
  • "We are importing Islamic extremism, Arab anti-Semitism, national and ethnic conflicts of other peoples, as well as a different understanding of society and law. German security agencies are unable to deal with these imported security problems, and the resulting reactions from the German population." — Leaked German intelligence document.
  • More than a decade ago historian Bernard Lewis warned that if current migration trends continue, Europe will be Islamic by the end of the 21st century. Germany's political elites are at the vanguard of making that prediction come true.
Germany will need to take in 300,000 migrants annually for the next 40 years to stop population decline, according to a leaked government report.
The document, parts of which were published by the Rheinische Post on February 1, reveals that the German government is counting on permanent mass migration — presumably from Africa, Asia and the Middle East — to keep the current size of the German population (82.8 million) stable through 2060.
The report implies that Chancellor Angela Merkel's decision to allow into the country some 1.5 million mostly Muslim migrants between 2015 and 2016 was not primarily a humanitarian gesture, but a calculated effort to stave off Germany's demographic decline and to preserve the future viability of the German welfare state.
If most of the new migrants arriving in Germany for the next four decades are from the Islamic world, the Muslim population of Germany could jump to well over 20 million and account for more than 25% of the overall German population by 2060.
Critics of Germany's open-door immigration policy are warning that the recent surge in Germany's Muslim population — which surpassed six million in 2016 for the first time — has already changed the face of the country forever.
Mass migration is fast-tracking the rise of Islam in Germany, as evidenced by the proliferation of no-go zones, Sharia courts, polygamy, child marriages and honor violence. Mass migration has also been responsible for social chaos, including jihadist attacks, a migrant rape epidemic, a public health crisis, rising crime and a rush by German citizens to purchase weapons for self-defense — and even to abandon Germany altogether.
The government has not said how it plans to integrate potentially millions of additional Muslims into German society. The price for reversing Germany's demographic decline appears to be the further Islamization of Germany under the guise of multiculturalism.


Out with the old, in with the new...
According to the report, which was drafted by the Federal Statistics Office (Destatis), the government had previously predicted that Germany's population would drop from a high of 82 million to 73 million by the year 2060 — or even 67.6 million in the worst case scenario. That estimate is now being revised, however, based on a recalculation of forecasts regarding immigration, birth rates and life expectancy.
Due to positive net migration (more people entering the country than leaving it), the German population increased by 1.14 million in 2015, and by another 750,000 in 2016, to reach an all-time high of 82.8 million at the end of 2016, according to preliminary estimates by Destatis.
With a fertility rate of 1.6 births per woman, well below the replacement rate of 2.1, Germany will require a permanent influx of 300,000 migrants per year in order keep the current population level stable through the year 2060, according to the report.
The report stresses the need quickly to integrate migrants into the workforce so that they can begin paying into the social welfare system. "According to past experience, this will not be easy and will take longer than initially often hoped," the report concedes. "Successes will only be visible in the medium to long term."

A recent survey by the Frankfurter Allgemeine Zeitung found that the 30 biggest German companies have employed only 54 refugees, including 50 who have been hired as couriers by Deutsche Post, the logistics provider. Company executives said the main problem is that migrants lack professional qualifications and German language skills.

According to the Federal Labor Office, the educational level of newly arrived migrants in Germany is far lower than expected: only a quarter have a high school diploma, while three quarters have no vocational training at all. Only 4% of new arrivals to Germany are highly qualified.

For now, the vast majority of migrants who entered Germany in 2015 and 2016 are wards of the German state. German taxpayers payed around €21.7 billion ($23.4 billion) on aid for refugees and asylum seekers in 2016, and will pay a similar amount in 2017.

A Finance Ministry document revealed that the migrant crisis could end up costing German taxpayers €93.6 billion ($101 billion) between now and 2020. About €25.7 billion would be for social spending, such as unemployment benefits and housing support. About €5.7 billion would be destined for language courses and €4.6 billion for integrating refugees into the workforce.

Mass migration has also increased the demand for housing and has pushed up rental costs for ordinary Germans. Some 350,000 new apartments are required each year to meet demand, but only 245,000 apartments were built in 2014, and another 248,000 in 2015, according to the Rheinische Post.

Meanwhile, migrants committed 208,344 crimes in 2015, according to a police report. This figure represented an 80% increase over 2014 and worked out to around 570 crimes committed by migrants every day, or 23 crimes each hour, between January and December 2015.

A leaked German intelligence document warned that mass migration from the Muslim world will lead to increasing political instability in the country. The document warned that the "integration of hundreds of thousands of illegal migrants will be impossible given the large numbers involved and the already-existing Muslim parallel societies in Germany." The document added:
"We are importing Islamic extremism, Arab anti-Semitism, national and ethnic conflicts of other peoples, as well as a different understanding of society and law. German security agencies are unable to deal with these imported security problems, and the resulting reactions from the German population."
In an interview with Die Welt, an unidentified high-ranking security official said:
"The high influx of people from other parts of the world will lead to the instability of our country. By allowing this mass migration, we are producing extremists. Mainstream society is radicalizing because the majority does not want migration, which is being forced by the political elites. In the future, many Germans will turn away from the constitutional state."
A recent YouGov poll found that 68% of Germans believe that security in the country has deteriorated due to mass migration. Nearly 70% of respondents said they fear for their lives and property in German train stations and subways, while 63% feel unsafe at large public events.

An INSA poll found that 60% of the Germans believe that Islam does not belong to Germany. Nearly half (46%) of those surveyed said they are worried about the "Islamization" of Germany.

If the German election were held today, however, Angela Merkel would easily win another four-year term as chancellor. An INSA poll conducted for Bild on February 2 found that Merkel's ruling Christian Democratic Party (CDU) would win with 33% of the vote, compared to 27% for the center-left Social Democratic Party (SPD) and 9% for the anti-immigration party Alternative for Germany (AfD).

Calculating the Muslim Population of Germany

Germany now vies with France for the highest Muslim population in Western Europe.
The increase in Germany's Muslim population is being fueled by mass migration. An estimated 300,000 migrants arrived in Germany in 2016, in addition to the more than one million who arrived in 2015. At least 80% (or 800,000 in 2015 and 240,000 in 2016) of the newcomers were Muslim, according to the Central Council of Muslims in Germany.
In addition to the newcomers, the rate of population increase of the Muslim community already living in Germany is around 1.6% per year (or 77,000), according to data extrapolated from a Pew Research Center study on the growth of the Muslim population in Europe.
Based on Pew projections, which were proffered before the current migration crisis, the Muslim population of Germany was to have reached an estimated 5,145,000 by the end of 2015.
Adding the 800,000 Muslim migrants who arrived in Germany in 2015, and the 240,000 who arrived in 2016, combined with the 77,000 natural increase, the Muslim population of Germany jumped by 1,117,000, to reach an estimated 6,262,000 by the end of 2016. This amounts to approximately 7.6% of Germany's overall population of 82.8 million.

The Muslim population of Germany could swell to 20 million as early as 2020, according to the president of the Bavarian Association of Municipalities (Bayerische Gemeindetag), Uwe Brandl. His forecast is based on so-called family reunifications — individuals whose asylum applications are approved will subsequently bring between four and eight additional family members to Germany.

More than a decade ago historian Bernard Lewis warned that if current migration trends continue, Europe will be Islamic by the end of the 21st century. Germany's political elites are at the vanguard of making that prediction come true.
Soeren Kern is a Senior Fellow at the New York-based Gatestone Institute. Follow him on Facebook and on Twitter.

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