the situation has reached a point
where it appears to be the duty and
responsibility of the Government
either to reveal what it knows, or
to order a scientific investigation
on a major scale and report the
findings immediately to the public
- John G. Fuller CHAPTER 10
SOME CONCLUDING REMARKS
It is quite appropriate on logical grounds, even an indispensable technique, for an investigator to use any hypothesis that appears to him to help clear up some complex problem. An inquiry can then be undertaken from the perspective afforded by the new hypothesis that is tentatively assumed to be true. By clearing the mind of stale issues, the new mental attitude suggests many fresh questions whose answers may be quite revealing. If the inquiry founders in confusion, then the hypothesis is judged to be useless and another one must be adopted. On the other hand, if the hypothesis brings some order where chaos once prevailed, it is judged to be meritorious. By dispelling confusion and illuminating a complex subject, an hypothesis earns the right to credibility until another one proves to do a better job.
It was taken as fact that some kind of unexplained phenomenon was responsible for the production of UFO reports. That article of faith was based upon a reliability analysis of some reports, the experience of the Air Force for two decades, the scholarly work at the University of Colorado, and the scientific studies of an expert. Given the existence of UFOs, the burden of the next step
If the concept of metallic vehicles in the atmosphere displaying an advanced technology is a source of mental anguish, an important point may have been missed somewhere along the way.
"Where do they come from?" "I don't know." This common exchange achieves little but to close the door to fruitful inquiry. The problem is that the question demands either a complete answer or an admission of ignorance. Much more progress can be made when the question admits of intermediate knowledge, such as, "Do the data contain any clues to conditions in their home land?" The appropriate answer is "Yes, indeed, many." And one is launched on a productive line of research in finding these clues. At the present stage of knowledge none of them has led to unequivocal conclusions. Some are even saddled with implications that are in conflict. Nevertheless, continued research should clarify these points and permit a rather definitive specification of the physical environment from whence the visitors come. Then a parallel study of the cosmos should pinpoint a number of candidate locations where such conditions prevail. If the UFO people live outside our solar system - a possibility that must not be overlooked - then this step may be most difficult, particularly in view of the estimated millions of habitable planets within our galaxy. (1) At any rate, the clues have been seen to appear in considerable variety. Recognizing a dwarf race suggested the corresponding evolutionary conditions of restricted nutrition and limited range of habitation, with possible high temperature and humidity. Breathing of air clearly established dependence upon
"Why haven't they made contact?" This question presupposes that no contact has been made, or that the questioner has not heard of any. While it is clear from the data that association with humanity is generally avoided, it is equally clear that numerous contacts have occurred. They all seemed to have been accidental, and none has lead to interviews on TV or to personal appearances before scientific conventions. It is entirely possible that contacts have been established at high levels of government, as has been claimed. Why there have been no official announcements or denials is about as puzzling as why most governments of the world invoke security measures on information pertaining to this subject, while claiming that it does not officially exist. (2) In any research, the importance of establishing direct communication with the UFO people cannot be overemphasized, for they could readily answer all these perplexing questions.
A Program Plan
Not only is a strong desire a prerequisite to success, one must also know how to proceed toward a particular goal. Ample reason has been offered to justify research on UFOs, and it seems appropriate here to describe a suitable research program. The strategy of this plan is to approach financial commitments gradually, as in a game of stud poker, where for a nominal ante, a few cards may be seen and evaluated. A further bet is required only when the player chooses to stay in the game. His option at any time, of course, is to drop out. So it is with the present plan. It is divided into phases so that the initial investment, or ante, can be minimal; and
Phase I is designed to confirm absolutely the existence of UFOs in scientific terms and to identify any advanced technologies that may be in use for propulsion or other purposes. Previous attempts at analyzing the UFO phenomenon have been badly frustrated by the task of cross-correlating the enormous volume of recorded data. As has been emphasized before, the data must be stored in a computer to speed up the search for critical information. (3) A data bank of UFO information, therefore, must become the heart of Phase I. The initial collection of cases to be logged in the computer should be the catalog of close-encounters that has proven to be so helpful in this book, because the breadth of information contained in that collection far exceeds any other of comparable size. (4) Other compilations would be required for studies such as geographical and temporal correlations, flight characteristics, and electromagnetic interference. Much sophistication will be required of the computer programs. In effect, they must have an essentially unlimited ability to search for correlations. At the beginning, no investigator can be clever enough to foresee all the possible correlations. In the previous chapters, the need for new information was seen to arise concerning relationships that had not previously been suspected. Take, for example, the question - "Are helmets worn predominantly during the daytime?" Or another: "Is there a correlation between the weapon used by the UFO people, the color of its beam, and the impact upon the target?" These came up in light of answers to prior questions. The point is that new insights will stimulate new questions. The computer software must also be a masterpiece of flexibility, because the routine scanning of files is not at all sufficient. The equipment must be able to handle language with
A Central Research Team would consist of 6 to 10 people who are broadly knowledgeable and inquisitive, professionally trained in technical fields, and already experts on UFOs. With vastly improved access to the source materials, they would utilize the computer and the methods that have been illustrated here to bring every point up the highest level of documentation. They would push into the frontiers which have been left unexplored, searching for new insights and answers. A staff of experts would provide technical guidance and assure that the work met professional standards in all fields. These consultants would be selected primarily on their qualifications, including a thorough acquaintance with the UFO literature and notable open-mindedness, for educating them would be too time-consuming and costly. A few devil's advocates on the staff, however, would be stimulating, and perhaps essential. Consultants would not be required full- time, but their contributions would encompass:
Group a) Automobile lamp filaments, distributor points, speedometers, batteries, and compasses,
Group b) Radio, television, and telephone circuits,
Group c) Plunger, inductance, and solid state relays used in the transmission of electrical power,Group d) The stimulation of light from atmospheric gases, Group e) The production
of "low-temperature" plasmas in the atmosphere and the associated chemical processes,
Group f) The transfer of momentum to atmospheric gases and the production of life upon UFO models, and,
Group g) Human and animal bodies, such as heating, shock, and paralysis.A general appraisal at the end of Phase I, including a dominant role by the source of financing, would identify its successes and failures. Final reports would describe the research accomplishments and present a detailed plan for Phase II, if continuation appeared to be justified. The general concept of Phase I is illustrated in an accompanying diagram. (A word of caution: It is not an organization chart.) To save time and administrative costs, primary responsibility for this research should be assigned to a large organization that already has the required staff and facilities. Now to Phase II. Its character and purpose are essentially different from Phase I. In the event of success in Phase I, the task of Phase II would be to define the new technology and its potential applications. Efforts would greatly increase in converting to computer language the many thousands of sighting reports that are already on record. By 1972, some 30,000 cases had been reduced to magnetic tape and are "available for sophisticated
Let me give some idea of the magnitude envisioned for this work. It appears likely that Phase I could be adequately conducted in about one year with a modest budget of about $4,000,000. Phase II, being substantially more complex and ambitious, would require at least three years and a budget of $75- to $100-million. Thereafter, it is anybody's guess, but the follow-on program would surely emulate the methods that have been so successfully employed in developing nuclear power, intercontinental ballistic missiles, and the Apollo spacecraft.
UFOLOGY, September 1976
Footnotes: Chapter 10
1. Dole, Stephen H., Habitable Planets For Man, Blaisdell, 1964.
2. The question of censorship and classification has been well reported by Lorenzen, Jim and
Coral, UFOs Over The Americas, Chapter X and Appendices, Signet, 1968.
3. Hynek, J. Allen, The UFO Experience, p.183, Regnery, 1972.
4. Vallee, Jacques, Passport to Magonia, Regnery, 1969.
5. Stanford Research Institute, Palo Alto, California.